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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 05-Oct-05
Terror grips Southeast Asia from Thailand to Australia

Web Log - October, 2005

Terror grips Southeast Asia from Thailand to Australia

Weekend Bali bombing targeted Australians, who are warned of further attacks.

"The timing didn't surprise me because, if I'm not mistaken, this is the start of the Australian holiday season, just as it was three years ago," an American DoD consultant told an Australian newspaper. "It's a calculated time when foreigners, particularly Australians, are in Bali."

Azahari Husin - Asia's most-wanted man

Azahari Husin - Asia's most-wanted man

Last Saturday's near-simultaneous blasts struck two seafood cafes in the tourist center in Bali, Indonesia, killing 22 people and injuring more than 100 others.

Last weekend's bombing attack was actually the fourth in as many years. Last year, a bomb blast targeted the Australian embassy in Jakarta, killing 8 people, injuring 168 others. In 2003, A car bomb in front of the JW Marriott Hotel in Jakarta killed 12 people.

The most deadly blast occurred on October 12, 2002, when the bombing of a Bali nightclub killed 202 people, including 88 Australians.

All four attacks are thought to be the work of Islamist terror group Jemaah Islamiyah, led by Malaysians Azahari Husin and Noordin Mohamed Top, the two most wanted men in Asia.

Southeast Asia

Southeast Asia

The two men were trained in bombmaking in the Philippines in 1999, and advanced training in Afghanistan in 2000.

The group's avowed intention is to establish an Islamic state from Indonesia to southern Thailand.

Thailand's Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has warned that the Bali violence could spread to Thailand.

"Geographically it may seem that the locations are far apart, but Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand are actually connected along sea routes," said Thaksin. "These people (the terrorists) have been traveling between and circulating around the region via the sea for generations."

In fact, Thailand has already has had its own problem with Islamic terrorists in its southern provinces. Prime Minister Thaksin's government was granted sweeping new powers to detain suspects and censor newspapers. The powers were granted following an increasingly serious series of attacks.

Thailand is primarily Buddhist, but there is a predominantly Muslim area in the south, on the border with Malaysia. An Islamist insurgency began there in January 2004, and since then more than 1,000 people have been killed in repeated terrorist attacks. Some 34,000 Buddhists have been forced to flee the region, the most violent arena for Muslim violence outside of Iraq and Southern Russia (Caucasus).

There is a danger that the Thai Muslim terrorists will link up with the Pan-Malaysian Islamic Party (PAS), an Islamist radical party that has control over the northern province of Kelantan bordering Thailand. The PAS in turn may be linking up with Jemaah Islamiyah, the group responsible for the Bali bombings, and with al-Qaeda itself.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this kind of linking up is expected, as we approach a "clash of civilizations" world war. However, some readers of this web site have misunderstood this to mean that the war will be with Islamist terrorist groups. (The politicians in Washington seem to believe the same thing.)

The expected reality is quite different. The war will be between countries: Muslim countries like Pakistan and Malaysia will be at war with non-Muslim countries like India, Thailand and America. Generally speaking, the intentions of terrorist groups are not so much to win a war themselves, but to trigger a major war which, they believe, their "side" will win. Osama bin Laden has, in fact, stated this as his intention, since he believes that a major world war would be won by the more than one billion Muslims in the world.

This linking up of identity groups, to form ever larger identity groups, leading to entire countries being forced to choose sides, is a major feature of crisis wars throughout history. (05-Oct-05) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 05-Oct-05 Terror grips Southeast Asia from Thailand to Australia

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 05-Oct-05
Terror grips Southeast Asia from Thailand to Australia