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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 09-Oct-05
Bird flu spreads to Europe: Romania and Turkey

Web Log - October, 2005

Bird flu spreads to Europe: Romania and Turkey

Suddenly bird flu is a very hot media topic, as President Bush raises the possibility of using the military to contain a flu outbreak.

The sudden confirmation of bird flu in Europe has been expected for several months, ever since the virus was found in birds in the Qinghai Lake region of China. Qinghai Lake is a major central point for waterfowl migrations, and there was rarely any doubt that migrating birds would spread the virus further, once the winter migration began in September.

In Turkey, nearly 2,000 turkeys died last week of the flu at a farm near the Aegean Sea. There is enormous fear that the flu will spread not only to other birds, but also to humans, as it already has in Asia. "I cried when I witnessed the death of my turkeys," says one farmer. "I cannot forget those moments ... But now I think of myself and what will happen to my health. I cannot go near my wife and children."

Authorities are taking precautions to contain the virus, including setting up quarantines around affected areas, and culling (killing) thousands of birds who might be susceptible.

Since many other European countries are on the migration paths, it's likely that other countries will be affected. Already, there are rumors of infections in Iran, Germany, and Hungary, but they haven't been confirmed.

In fact, the Romanian outbreak occurred in the Danube delta, which contains Europe's largest wetlands and is a major migratory area for wild birds coming from Russia, Scandinavia, Poland and Germany. This indicates that the virus will continue to spread worldwide.

In Jakarta, Indonesia, a 4-year-old boy has been diagnosed with bird flu, which would be sixth confirmed human case in the country.

On the other hand, six of fifteen patients being treated for bird flu have been found to have other illnesses instead (ordinary flu or typhoid), and they are being discharged.

Media attention to bird flu has increased, thanks to last week's announcement of the reconstruction of the lethal Spanish Flu virus, that spread around the world in 1918-19. World War I had just ended, killing many more people than any previous war in history, but the Spanish Flu killed more people than the war.

In fact, of American soldiers who died in Europe, half of them fell to the virus and not to the enemy.

The reconstruction was done by obtaining samples from two different sources. One source was small samples of lung tissue that had been saved by the Army in 1918 in the hope that some future generation could learn something from them. The other source was the frozen body of woman who had died from the flu in Alaska in 1918.

The reconstruction was led by Jeffery K. Taubenberger of the Armed Forces Institute of Pathology, said in an interview,

"Our concern is that the H5 type [such as the new avian flu strains] might be going down a similar path [of adapting to humans] as the 1918 virus did. What we've found is kind of eerie. Practically any of the bird viruses that we can find with some of these changes tend to be the highly pathogenic avian viruses, like those in Asia.

This suggests to us that these viruses are acquiring mutations that make them more human-adapted. So far it's a lucky thing. These viruses can get into a person, and they can kill. But they can't yet spread from person to person. The race is on now to figure out what changes are crucial to allowing the virus to be transmissible from one person to another."

Bird flu was first discovered in 1997, and was localized to chickens in Hong Kong, and later Vietnam. Despite repeated attempts by the U.N. World Health Organization to stamp it out, it has continued to survive, and adapt to additional species. Originally it infected only chickens, but since then it's adapted to infect ducks, geese, and other birds, and has gone on to kill pigs, tigers and other cats.

Conflict risk level for next 6-12 months as of: 30-May-2005

W. Europe 1 Arab Israeli 2

Russia Caucasus 2 Kashmir 1

China 2 North Korea 3

Financial 3 Bird flu 3

Key: 1=green 1=Low risk 2=yellow 2=Med 3=red 3=High 4=black 4=Active

Most epidemiologists today believe that a worldwide bird flu pandemic is inevitable. Once begun, it will kill tens of millions of people worldwide, and perhaps hundreds of millions. A bird flu pandemic would cause a worldwide financial crisis, and would spark riots among people seeking food or scarce vaccine. Within a year or two, all of the regions in my little "Conflict risk" graphic would be at full scale war, since they're all in "generational crisis" periods.

Right now, the best that officials can hope for is that the pandemic won't start this year. If it doesn't occur till next year, then the time might be used to develop additional vaccines, or find other solutions. However, we're overdue for a stock market panic as well as a bird flu pandemic, and so the world may be a very different place a year from now. (09-Oct-05) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 09-Oct-05 Bird flu spreads to Europe: Romania and Turkey

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 09-Oct-05
Bird flu spreads to Europe: Romania and Turkey