Chechnya terrorists attack Russian town (Nalchik) massively - 14-Oct-05 - Generational Dynamics

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 14-Oct-05

Chechnya terrorists attack Russian town (Nalchik) massively

Coordinated attack by 300 Chechen gunmen raises Caucusus violence to new level.

When I first heard a story about "a gunfight in the Caucasus" teased on the news yesterday morning, I wondered, "Why is this even a news story? There are gunfights in the Caucasus every day."

The Caucasus Mountains run from the Black Sea to the Caspian Sea

The Caucasus Mountains run from the Black Sea to the Caspian Sea

As I wrote last July, when a passenger train was bombed in Dagestan, violence in Dagestan occurs almost daily because of 60% unemployment, poverty, and rampant government corruption.

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Dagestan has not disappointed this week. On Tuesday, police in Dagestan defused a powerful bomb, and on Wednesday, gunmen shot and killed two policemen. This kind of stuff happens all the time.

So what's so special about yesterday's gunfight?

First, its size and execution. There were 150-300 gunmen simultaneously attacking three police stations, the airport, and other government buildings. The assault took place in Nalchik, capital of Kabardino-Balkaria, a province near Chechnya, and adjacent to South Ossetia, the site of the Beslan school massacre that killed hundreds of school children a year ago.

Yesterday's assault left the streets of Nalchik littered with some 60 corpses, most of them part of the terrorist group that launched the attack.

Second, and most important, the fact that the attack was sufficiently complex to have required coordination between different Muslim terrorist groups, including one local to Nalchik. In this case, it means that a local Muslim terrorist group coordinated the attack with a Chechen terrorist group.

This theme of coordination and organization is similar to the one we discussed recently as regards the violent beating of Chinese democracy activist Lu Banglie. As long as demonstrations and rebellions are local, the government can handle them. But when local groups start to link together into larger, better organized terrorist armies, then the government can lose control. That is, in fact, what's happening.

Credit for yesterday's attack was claimed by Chechen warlord Shamil Basayev. Basayev is responsible all the terrorist attacks described in the preceding paragraphs, including the Beslan massacre and the downing of two passenger planes while in flight. Basayev's group linked up with Yarmuk, a militant Islamic group based in Kabardino-Balkaria.

This major new terrorist attack is a major setback for Russian President Vladimir Putin's hardline policy in trying to control terrorism in the Caucasus.

President Putin has ordered a complete blockade of Nalchik to keep the remaining terrorists from escaping.

In fact, there's no possibility that any policy by Putin will end the terrorism in Caucasus.

From the point of Generational Dynamics, the Caucasus region is well into a "generational crisis" period, following the Russian civil war of the 1920s, Stalin's genocide of Ukrainians in the 1930s, and exiled Chechens to other regions in the mid 1940s. The Caucasus region is a major front line in the centuries old war between Orthodox Christians and Muslims, and Generational Dynamics predicts that the war between those two civilizations will be fought again, resulting a war that consumes Russia and the entire Caucasus region. (14-Oct-05) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 14-Oct-05 Chechnya terrorists attack Russian town (Nalchik) massively

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 14-Oct-05
Chechnya terrorists attack Russian town (Nalchik) massively