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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 3-Nov-05
Paris riots continue for seventh night

Web Log - November, 2005

Paris riots continue for seventh night

Historically, Paris is well known for its riots and rebellions.

The French Revolution occurred in 1789. It launched the Reign of Terror, in which 200,000 ordinary people were killed using the guillotine. The word "terror" was invented at the time of the French Revolution, and at that time is was thought to be a good thing, because it meant the death by guillotine of the aristocrats, their families, their servants, their friends, friends of their friends, their children, children of their friends, and so forth.

(According to one story, the French Revolution was launched when the Queen, Marie Antoinette, was told that there was no bread for the people, and she responded, "Let them eat cake," infuriating the populace. As it turns out though, there's no proof that Marie Antoinette actually made that remark.)

The next rebellion followed about 80 years later. In 1870, Prussian (German) Chancellor Otto von Bismarck tricked France into attacking Prussia. This war was a disaster for France. German forces overran and occupied France for months -- something that was repeated 70 years later in World War II.

The Franco-Prussian War was followed a few months later in 1871 by a huge genocidal civil war in Paris known as the French Commune. After tens of thousands of French had already been killed by the Germans, 30,000 more French killed each other in the French Commune.

So civil wars and rebellions aren't new for Paris.

That's why the current riots in Paris suburbs carry a historical significance, as well as a significance in the battle between political rivals Nicolas Sarkozy and Dominique de Villepin that we described yesterday.

The riots appear to be spreading and gaining in intensity. This indicates that feelings in the Muslim communities run very deep, and that the fault lines are growing increasingly pronounced.

Each day that the riots continue, respective positions harden more and fault lines become more and more dangerous.

An editorial in the Arab News says that the initial incident "unleashed wider grievances among immigrants who feel themselves disadvantaged and ignored by the French state. Poor schooling, bad housing and a lack of jobs create alienated youths and gang cultures where violence is never far from the surface."

Positions are also hardening on the government side, where both Sarkozy and de Villepin are taking increasingly tough positions on the violence.

All this doesn't mean that the current riots are about to spiral out of control into full-scale civil war.

But it does mean that the longer it takes for Sarkozy and de Villepin to bring the situation under control, the more likely it is that a major Paris civil war will be a major component of the upcoming West European war that we've been talking about.

And it certainly means that there's no chance whatsoever of a settlement of the vitriolic budget dispute between England and France, since any reduction in subsidies to French farmers could lead to increased violence. Thus, if there was ever any doubt that the "European project" was dead, the riots guarantee it.

Generational Dynamics predicts that, after a millennium of West European crisis wars, England and France are going to be fighting a new crisis war. The current riots in French suburbs indicate that a French civil war is likely to be a component of that West European war. (3-Nov-05) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 3-Nov-05 Paris riots continue for seventh night

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 3-Nov-05
Paris riots continue for seventh night