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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 5-Nov-05
China mobilizes its army to fight bird flu

Web Log - November, 2005

China mobilizes its army to fight bird flu

Does this move have greater significance?

China is mobilizing its 2.3 million person army to fight bird flu.

At the very least, this move indicates the depth of China's concern over the spread of bird flu.

China has officially been downplaying the extent of bird flu in that country, and has specifically denied that humans are getting infected.

However, China has officially made four separate reports of bird flu outbreaks in birds in three weeks, resulting in the culling (killing) of over 300,000 birds. Furthermore, there have been several human deaths from pneumonia that have gone unexplained, leading to the suspicion that China is hiding a much worse situation than they've reported.

The new report that China is mobilizing its huge army, the largest army in the world, to fight bird flu is significant in more ways than one.

The obvious significance is that bird flu must be increasingly widespread if the army is required.

But the second reason is the possibility that China itself is becoming increasingly unstable. As described at length before, Generational Dynamics predicts that China is approaching a massive civil war as its bubble economy unravels, along with the rigid social structure originally set up by Mao Zedong in the 1950s and 60s. Today, there are close to 150 million migrant workers (20% of the workforce), mostly peasants who have lost their farms to corrupt land deals by CCP (Chinese Communist Party) officials, who take any jobs they can find in the cities and send money back to their families in vast poverty-stricken rural areas. Any recession or economic setback to China would provoke nationwide fury, and a bird flu epidemic would certainly be a trigger.

Conflict risk level for next 6-12 months as of: 30-May-2005

W. Europe 1 Arab Israeli 2

Russia Caucasus 2 Kashmir 1

China 2 North Korea 3

Financial 3 Bird flu 3

Key: 1=green 1=Low risk 2=yellow 2=Med 3=red 3=High 4=black 4=Active

It's possible that the mobilization of the army is related only to the bird flu, and that's bad enough. But China had 70,000 regional rebellions in 2004, and the number has been increasing in 2005, even without the bird flu. It's possible that the army is being mobilized to contain the danger of more regional rebellions, and a serious instability in China could lead to a world war. During the next few weeks and months, we'll see what effects the deployment of China's huge army has. (5-Nov-05) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 5-Nov-05 China mobilizes its army to fight bird flu

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 5-Nov-05
China mobilizes its army to fight bird flu