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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 15-Nov-05
The bizarre November 9 bombings in Amman, Jordan

Web Log - November, 2005

The bizarre November 9 bombings in Amman, Jordan

After four days, what happened is still unclear.

The bare facts are clear: Three suicide bombers walked into popular tourist hotels in Amman on Wednesday and exploded their bombs, killing 57 people, including a large wedding party with many women and children. "Al-Qaeda in Iraq" terrorist leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi was immediately suspected.

Beyond that, confusion abounds:

Jordanians identified the remains of the three male suicide bombers, but al-Zarqawi bragged on his web site that there four Iraqis, two of whom were a married couple.

Saijida Mubarak Atrous

Saijida Mubarak Atrous

This was a surprise to the Jordanians, who immediately expanded their investigation to search for the woman who, it turned out, had not exploded her bomb. Jordan aired part of her confession on television:

"My name is Saijida Mubarak Atrous, born in the 70s. I am an Iraqi national. I reside in Ramadi. On November 5, I accompanied my husband to Jordan carrying a fake Iraqi passport. His was under the name of Ali Hussein Ali, and mine was Saijida Abdel Kader Latif. We waited in Iraq, and a white car picked us up. There was a driver and a passenger. We entered Jordan together. My husband is the one who organized everything. I don't know anything else. We rented an apartment. My husband wore an explosive belt and put one on me. He taught me how to use it. The targets were hotels in Jordan. We took a car, and we went on November 9 to a hotel. There was a wedding ceremony in the hotel. There were women, men and children. My husband took a corner and I took another one. My husband detonated his bomb, and I tried to detonate mine but failed. People fled running, and I left running with them."

They're still questioning the woman to find out as much as she's willing to tell about Zarqawi's operation.

Now, there are a whole bunch of problems with this whole story.

This has been painted as a successful al-Zarqawi operation. It was in many ways, but obviously he made many mistakes.
- Bombing a wedding has turned most of the Jordanian population against him, where they previously supported his insurgency because it was against the Americans.
- al-Zarqawi used a female suicide bomber to increase the level of horror, but the effect was lost because the female walked away without detonating her bomb.
- Bragging about the married suicide bomber only revealed that she had escaped without detonating her bomb. This must have made al-Zarqawi look like an idiot.
Al-Zarqawi is Sunni Muslim, and it's a surprise that he would target Jordanian Sunni Muslims, especially since, just two months ago, he declared war against all Shi'ites in Iraq, and then looked pathetic as he had to back off his threat "for some Shi'ites."

Some commentators are calling this "a qualitatively significant and troubling step in the global dynamics of terror," because al-Zarqawi has expanded his Iraq insurgency into Jordan.
Actually, al-Zarqawi is a Jordanian, and has long history of attempted terrorist acts against Jordan, because of Jordan's peace agreement with Israel and tacit support for America's war in Iraq.

Some commentators are calling the attack a major terror expansion because a female suicide bomber was involved.
Once again, this is a confusing interpretation because there have been female suicide bombers used on Israeli targets.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics the use of a female suicide bomber is a sign of the intensity of the hatred that al-Zarqawi holds for Jordan, because using a woman to kill women and children shows a willingness to use genocidal methods that are standard in a crisis war. Those who hope that for an end to the terrorist insurgency should understand this.

The woman's confession story contains some apparent contradictions: She wasn't wounded by the explosion of her husband's bomb. She didn't get rid of her explosive belt after escaping. This makes it seem more likely that she never planned to detonate her bomb, and may even not have gone to the hotel.

The suicide bombers have been identified as Iraqis. This is a surprise because suicide bombers in Iraq have been overwhelmingly Saudi. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this makes sense because Iraq is in a "generational awakening" period, meaning that the value of individual life is at a high value, and Saudi Arabia is deep into a generational crisis period, meaning that individual lives have little value. It seems reasonably likely, again, that the husband and wife decided that the woman should walk away without detonating her bomb, rather than losing her life too.

There are several things that we can tentatively conclude from this incident.

First, al-Zarqawi has been acting increasing desperate recently, even claiming credit for Hurricane Katrina. In this case, al-Zarqawi managed to kill a lot of incident Jordanians, including many women and children, but accomplished little else. It's hard to see this as much more than a maniac striking out.

Second, this incident illustrates the complexity of the Mideast situation.

Generational Dynamics predicts that there will be a new genocidal war between Arabs and Jews, replaying the genocidal crisis war of the 1940s after the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel. Al-Zarqawi's acts show that there may also be genocidal splits among different Muslim groups, such as between Sunnis and Shi'ites, or between Arabs and other Muslim groups. (15-Nov-05) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 15-Nov-05 The bizarre November 9 bombings in Amman, Jordan

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 15-Nov-05
The bizarre November 9 bombings in Amman, Jordan