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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 17-Nov-05
George Bush lectures China on being more like Taiwan

Web Log - November, 2005

George Bush lectures China on being more like Taiwan

It's incredible that President Bush told China to be more open and democratic, and should permit freedom of speech and religion, in a speech given in Japan, prior to his visit to China. He said that China should follow the example of Taiwan:

"Taiwan ... has moved from repression to democracy as it liberalized its economy. ... [E]conomic liberalization in Taiwan helped fuel its desire for individual political freedom -- because men and women who are allowed to control their own wealth will eventually insist on controlling their own lives and their own future. Like South Korea, modern Taiwan is free and democratic and prosperous. By embracing freedom at all levels, Taiwan has delivered prosperity to its people and created a free and democratic Chinese society."

If you're a regular reader of this web site, then you know that I'm not a very big fan of politicians (this has nothing to do with party affiliation), and this ridiculous statement shows why.

The Chinese must be looking at one another, shaking their heads and saying, "What planet is this guy from?"

Surely Bush must know that China can't permit freedom of speech or freedom of religion because it would send the country into total chaos. As we discussed last January, China's society is unraveling and headed for civil war, a certain war with Japan, and a certain war with America over Taiwan.

The main dynamic began in 1989 with the Tienanmen Square massacre of college students protesting against the government. This caused major social changes in both China and Taiwan.

In Taiwan, students watching the massacre were horrified by what they saw. The started the Wild Lily student rebellion, whose purpose was to advocate Taiwan's nationhood and independence from China. One of the leaders of the Wild Lily rebellion, Chen Shui-bian, has been Taiwan's president since 2000, and has announced plans to move towards independence, although he's backed off to avoid provoking China.

However, attitudes in Taiwan continue to harden, thanks to generational changes. Young people in Taiwan are increasingly confrontational with China, which is to be expected from the Generational Dynamics model.

In China, many people became followers of a spiritual movement called the Falun Gong. Older people would get together to meditate and do exercises. By 1999, millions of people had joined the movement, and many were comparing themselves to the founders of the Taiping rebellion of the 1850s and 1860s, which resulted in the deaths of tens of millions of people.

Alarmed Chinese leaders are well aware of the comparison, and they reacted by brutally crushing the Falun Gong movement, putting tens of thousands and perhaps hundreds of thousands of practitioners in jail. Falun Gong has become an international movement, but within China any association is illegal and punishable by years in jail.

It hasn't solved the problem, however. Regional mass riots in are increasingly common, with 74,000 occurring last year. The number of regional rebellions keeps growing, and it's only a matter of time before Chinese lose control.

So what you should imagine is terrified Chinese leaders, fearful of a regional rebellion that spirals out of control, and looking across the Straits of Taiwan to a territory whose citizens are increasingly desirous of independence, with both trends increasing because of generational changes.

Into that atmosphere comes President Bush's call for freedom of speech and religion in China. This would free the millions of followers of Falun Gong to begin demonstrating against the Beijing government, and instantly create a nationwide rebel group.

So why did Bush make this statement? Maybe it was a mistake, or maybe it was a planned provocation. Who knows? He's a politician.

As I've said before, I see one and only one person of either party in Washington who knows what's going on in the world, and that's Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld. Rumsfeld was born in 1932, and is a member of the "Silent Generation" that grew up during the Great Depression and World War II. Rumsfeld was old enough to understand that the militarization of Hitler's Germany in the mid 1930s led to the most violent war the world has known, and Rumsfeld can see the same thing happening in China's aggressive militarization today. Thus, he's been modernizing the armed forces and refocusing it on the Pacific, in preparation of a preemptive war by China.

Ominously, China has just mobilized its 2.3 million man army to "fight bird flu."

In the meantime, Bush's visit to Asia should be seen as a political dance, not having much to do with what's really going on in the world. (17-Nov-05) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 17-Nov-05 George Bush lectures China on being more like Taiwan

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 17-Nov-05
George Bush lectures China on being more like Taiwan