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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 29-Nov-05
Canada announces that bird flu findings are not pathenogenic

Web Log - November, 2005

Canada announces that bird flu findings are not pathenogenic

After many weeks of delay, Canada has finally responded to conspiracy buffs.

As we reported on October 31, Canada's Public Health Agency issued a press release saying that bird flu had been found in Canada, and that tests were ongoing to determine whether it was the H5N1 strain. According to the press release, these tests would "take up to a week."

But the results of the tests were not forthcoming, leading conspiracy buffs to wonder why Canada wasn't releasing its test results.

Finally, after three weeks, the agency issued a new press release saying that tests confirm that the type of bird flu was a "low pathogenic North American strain" that's been around for years. This form of avian flu produces only mild disease in birds, and is not transmitted to humans.

This doesn't mean that North America has escaped for all time, unfortunately. Highly pathenogenic H5N1 bird flu has spread via wild bird migrations from Vietnam throughout Asia to Russia, Europe and the Mideast, and we're just beginning to hear reports from Africa. Migratory birds, some of which carry bird flu but do not become ill, spread the virus by dropping feces that make contact with birds on the ground, which then contract the virus.

Inquisitive chicken inspects vaccination needle

Inquisitive chicken inspects vaccination needle

The situation in China is especially severe with new outbreaks reported almost every day. China has announced plans to vaccinate 14 billion (billion with a "b") birds with bird flu vaccine, though many question the feasibility of this project. China has just mobilized its 2.3 million man army to "fight bird flu."

There are also migratory bird paths that run from Asia across the Bering Straits into Alaska and then down into Canada and the United States. It's only a matter of time before the pathenogenic virus spreads to North America in the same way that's spread to other continents.

This does not change the outlook for a pandemic involving human to human transmission of the pathenogenic H5N1 virus. A human to human transmissible virus will be formed when somebody simultaneously gets the ordinary human flu and the pathogenic H5N1 bird flu at the same time. At that time, the genes from the two forms of the virus can recombine to form an H5N1 virus that can move easily from human to human.

Experts fear that a propitious time for such a result will be during the Chinese and Vietnamese new year celebrations in January and February, when many people will be travelling, and more poultry would be transported, slaughtered and consumed.

If this happens, it would lead to a bird flu pandemic in the spring, and a renewed pandemic the following winter. (29-Nov-05) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 29-Nov-05 Canada announces that bird flu findings are not pathenogenic

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 29-Nov-05
Canada announces that bird flu findings are not pathenogenic