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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 6-Dec-05
Blair's EU 2007 budget proposal leaves Europe is poised for new bruising battle in Brussels on Dec 16-17

Web Log - December, 2005

Blair's EU 2007 budget proposal leaves Europe is poised for new bruising battle in Brussels on Dec 16-17

Will the European Union survive into 2007? That's the question that may be answered as ministers prepare for a new attempt to settle on an EU budget for the years 2007-2013. The current budget agreement expires at the end of 2006.

Furious EU President, Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker on June 18 <font size=-2>(Source: BBC)</font>

Furious EU President, Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker on June 18 (Source: BBC)

The last attempt at a budget agreement, on June 17, failed in an acrimonious confrontation between UK Prime Minister Tony Blair and French President Jacques Chirac, with the furious EU President Jean-Claude Juncker siding with Chirac. (Sorry to keep posting that same picture of Juncker, but I just love it.)

Blair is refusing to give up its annual €5 billion rebate (€ = euros), negotiated by Margaret Thatcher in the 1980s, unless the agricultural subsidy that gives France an annual €12 billion is also reduced. Chirac and other countries are refusing.

Last week there were press reports that Tony Blair was caving on the rebate, getting nothing in return, as a result of extreme pressure from several EU countries. If the press reports had been right, it could have been politically disastrous for Blair, since many Brits feel that they're paying way too much to the EU as it is.

The press reports were only tangentially true. In a complex proposal put forward to the EU ministers on Monday, Blair has offered to reduce the rebate by 12-15% and allow France to retain its full agricultural subsidy in 2007 -- provided that the agricultural subsidy for 2008 and beyond is open for debate, and provided that development aid to new member states, especially Poland, Bulgaria and Romania, is also reduced.

Tony Blair is in a very unusual political position: He's scheduled to hold office for several years more, but he's already announced that he will not run again. This gives him some political freedom within his own country to make this kind of offer.

But the repercussions were swift nonetheless. A spokesman for the opposition Conservative party said, “Mr Blair has spent the last few days rushing around Eastern Europe trying to find a friend. Now, at the last minute, he has come up with these ill-considered and damaging proposals to surrender part of Britain’s rebate whilst getting nothing in return.”

But that's nothing compared to the heat he's getting from the Europeans.

The budget proposal was immediately labeled "unacceptable" by the EU and by several member countries. France and Poland led the assault. The French foreign minister said, "These proposals do not seem to be of a nature to lead to the agreement for which we all wish." The Polish prime minister said, "The proposal is not based on solidarity. In this form it is unacceptable." And the European commission president said, "This proposal amounts to a budget for a 'mini-Europe', not the strong Europe we need."

As we've previously said, we're at a unique time in history, 60 years after the end of World War II, when all the countries that fought in the war are now being led by people born after the war, don't have personal memory of its horrors, and are unwilling to compromise to prevent another such war, making failure of the "European project" a foregone conclusion.

So there's a great deal at stake in the next two weeks or so. Positions are very hard, and it's difficult to see how much each side can back down. Germany has expressed interest in mediating the negotiating, so perhaps some compromise will be worked -- perhaps for just the year 2007, with the hope that tempers will cool, so that an agreement can be worked out a year from now for 2008 and beyond.

However, what few people understand is that tempers are not going to cool, because the generational changes that are in place are an irreversible trend. A year from now, the French, the British, the Poles and all the others will be even more adamantly locked into their positions, so a long term agreement at that time will be impossible.

Generational Dynamics predicts that there'll be a new west European war, just as there have been west European wars at regular intervals for a millennium or more. Generational Dynamics doesn't predict who the belligerents will be, but trends for the last few years indicate that England and France will, once again, be at war. (6-Dec-05) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 6-Dec-05 Blair's EU 2007 budget proposal leaves Europe is poised for new bruising battle in Brussels on Dec 16-17

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 6-Dec-05
Blair's EU 2007 budget proposal leaves Europe is poised for new bruising battle in Brussels on Dec 16-17