	Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

\| HOME \| WEB LOG \| COUNTRY WIKI \| COMMENT \| FORUM \| DOWNLOADS \| ABOUT \|

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 11-Dec-05
Chinese killing of Dongzhou protesters revives memories of Tiananmen Square massacre

Web Log - December, 2005

Chinese killing of Dongzhou protesters revives memories of Tiananmen Square massacre

Chinese armed security forces fired on villagers protesting land confiscation, killing many peasants

The protest occurred in Dongzhou, about 80 miles from Hong Kong. It began on Monday with 100-200 villagers, growing to over 10,000 protesters on Tuesday, after which 3,000 armed security forces responded with guns, killing some villagers. The incident might have been successfully covered up, except for the village's proximity to Hong Kong, where some press freedom still exists.

The severity of the incident is still in question. China was officially silent on the incident until Saturday, and then blamed "violent agitators" with "pipe bombs," forcing action by the security forces that killed only three people. However, interviews with numerous villagers tell a far more violent story. Villagers deny use of pipe bombs and other violent weapons, and say that about 20 dead bodies of villagers have been found, and that another 40 villagers are missing.

Regional mass riots in are increasingly common in China, with 74,000 riots occurring in 2004, according to Chinese officials. The specially trained Chinese security forces have become extremely skilled at using tear gas and truncheons to disperse these riots, but they've avoided using lethal weapons so far.

Thus, the current incident represents a significant increase in violence against protesters, especially because it revives memories of the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre. That event, which was the climax of China's "generational awakening" period, shocked China and the entire world, and led to the rise of the Falun Gong protest movement and to the independence movement in Taiwan. Both of those movements will be newly electrified by the Dongzhou killings.

China is becoming increasingly unstable because Mao Zedong's social structure, set up in the 1950s and 1960s, is completely unraveling. Peasants were the backbone of Mao's Communist revolution, but afterwards he controlled them with harsh measures that led to the deaths of tens of millions of peasants in 1959 through Mao's "Great Leap Forward." Mao set up strict rules separating rural peasants from urban factory workers, and guaranteed rough parity in incomes. Today, however, peasants have fallen far behind city workers, with rural income about 1/3 of urban incomes. Today China has over 120 million itinerant workers, mostly poor peasants who get what work they can in the cities and send money back to their families.

This instability comes at a time of increasing problems for the Communist regime:

Bird flu has been spreading rapidly among birds throughout China, with new regional outbreaks announced almost every day. China has mobilized its 2.3 million man army to "fight bird flu." Bird flu is substantially affecting rural households who raise most of the country’s poultry.

China is suffering overcapacity in cement, aluminum, textiles and other goods, and is also constructing too many factories, buildings and resorts. China's bubble economy, which has been growing at 9-10% a year for two decades, seems finally ready to burst. This will result in deflation and recession, and severe unemployment among itinerant workers.

As a separate issue. China's relations with Japan have have been deteriorating sharply, leading to the possibility of a miscalculation on either side leading to war.

As I wrote last January, China's society is unraveling and headed for civil war. With the continually increasing social unrest, fed by bird flu problems, overcapacity and deflation, there are now signs that the unraveling of China's economy and society is gathering steam.

Into that mix, add the Dongzhou massacre and newly stirred memories of the Tiananmen Square massacre, and you have a situation that could boil over at any time. (11-Dec-05) Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

Web Log Pages

Current Web Log

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 11-Dec-05 Chinese killing of Dongzhou protesters revives memories of Tiananmen Square massacre

Web Log Pages

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 11-Dec-05
Chinese killing of Dongzhou protesters revives memories of Tiananmen Square massacre