	Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 16-Dec-05
Sudden generational shift puts Palestinian "Young Guard" threatening "Old Guard"

Web Log - December, 2005

Sudden generational shift puts Palestinian "Young Guard" threatening "Old Guard"

Younger generations in control in Palestine and Israel bring war closer.

Right on schedule, a significant generational change is taking place in the Palestinian Authority and its ruling political party, Fatah.

On the same day that the Palestinian militia group Hamas won two crucial municipal elections, far ahead of Fatah, the Fatah party itself has split in two, with a younger splinter group challenging the leadership, headed by Mahmoud Abbas, also known as Abu Mazen.

Yasser Arafat in 2000

Yasser Arafat in 2000

Abbas was part of the "Old Guard," the group of Palestinian leaders surrounding Yasser Arafat, who founded Fatah and the Palestinian Authority in 1959, and was idolized by many Palestinians, until his death on November 14, 2004.

For many years, leaders in America and around the Western world were absolutely certain that peace would finally come to the Mideast if only Arafat weren't preventing it. When he died, these leaders heralded the new era of Mideast peace and tranquility, especially after Abbas took "bold steps" to bring peace, after being elected Palestinian Authority president.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this was all the usual political nonsense. Ironically, as I explained several times, Arafat was perhaps a brutal, vicious terrorist, but he was a terrorist because it was the lesser of two evils, the other evil being a major regional war between Arabs and Jews.

It's one of the great ironies of history, though few people understand it, that Arafat and Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, two men who truly hated each other, actually worked together to prevent a major new war. The reason was that Arafat (born in 1929) and Sharon (born in 1928) had a very important shared experience: They both lived through the Arab-Jewish war of the 1940s, especially the extremely violent, genocidal war of 1948-49, that exploded after the United Nations partitioned Palestine, creating the state of Israel. Like any "generational crisis" war, that war was such a horror that both Arafat and Sharon were always willing to do anything to prevent another one. Thus, Arafat promoted terrorism, and Sharon has taken several controversial steps, including building the barrier surrounding Israel.

Based on this trend information from Generational Dynamics, I predicted two and one-half years ago that the Mideast Peace Roadmap would fail, and that the most likely time frame for a Mideast war would be within two years after the disappearance of Yasser Arafat. As of today, I have absolutely no reason to modify either of these predictions, even though I've been called "crazy" by people who simply have no real understanding of the power of generational changes.

Now the younger generations are taking over in both Palestine and Israel.

In the Gaza Strip, Abbas's Fatah has almost lost control completely to Hamas. When Arafat died, Western leaders were happily chirping that Abbas would bring Hamas under control, and would even disarm the militia group.

Instead Hamas, which is lead by a younger generation of Palestinians who have no personal memory of the 1940s genocidal wars, have little respect for Abbas and Fatah, is poised to win the Parliamentary elections to be held in January. It's Hamas that's going to bring Abbas under control.

(Incidentally, I've heard some pundits gleefully predict that when Hamas takes charge, they'll become domesticated and more responsible, and they'll negotiate peace with Israel. There's no limit to the nonsense that politicians believe.)

A similar "generational earthquake" has been taking place in Israel, as Ariel Sharon abandoned the Likud party, that he co-founded in 1974. He had to abandon it because it was being taken over by hard-liners from a younger generation. Similarly, Israel's Labor party has also been shaken to the core, thanks to the victory of a young man as party leader.

These changes are occurring right on schedule, as the generation of people who grew up during the genocidal 1940s wars are all disappearing (retiring or dying), all at once, leaving behind generations of people born after the war, with no personal memory of the war, and with contempt for the compromises and "sellouts" of the older generations.

If you're a regular reader of this web site, I hope that you're beginning to understand how deeply this generational change goes. If you don't believe it, just talk to somebody under age 25. Or go to a college, and talk to some college students. See how many youngsters you run into who have any grasp of how close the Mideast is to a major war, or how devastating a war with China would be. Actually, you may find it difficult to find very many who can even pick out China on a map.

It's the same everywhere in the world, including the Mideast. New generations are taking over, consisting of young people who have no fear of war, and are leading the world into new wars. Generational Dynamics predicts, with 100% certainty, that there will be a new genocidal war between Arabs and Israelis, and that it will encompass the entire Mideast. My own (slightly less certain) prediction is that American forces will still be in Iraq when this war begins, and that America will become fully engaged in this new Mideast war. (16-Dec-05) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 16-Dec-05 Sudden generational shift puts Palestinian "Young Guard" threatening "Old Guard"

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 16-Dec-05
Sudden generational shift puts Palestinian "Young Guard" threatening "Old Guard"