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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 17-Dec-05

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Tony Blair caves, and the EU reaches a budget agreement

Tony Blair caves, and the EU reaches a budget agreement

"A big cloud has been lifted from Europe," says Germany Chancellor Angela Merkel, after British Prime Minister Tony Blair sacrificed more of the British rebate to gain an agreement on a budget for 2007-2013.

Tony Blair and Jacques Chirac meet at the EU summit in Brussels. (Source: Reuters)

The pressure on Blair was enormous. Essentially the discussion had been positioned so that Blair would bear almost the entire blame for a failure to break the deadlock, and for the resulting major crisis to the European Union project.

He didn't give up the entire rebate, as France, Poland and other EU members were demanding, but he also got little in return. French President Jacques Chirac conceded nothing in reducing the agricultural subsidy to France, but only agreed to a vague budget review by 2008. However, some of the newer states will have to give up some of the money they had expected to receive.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this agreement is like a heat wave in New York in November -- it's a welcome relief, but it doesn't change the overall trend, and doesn't mean that winter isn't coming. Still, the compromise means that the "European Project" can continue, even though generational changes have made rejection of the proposed European constitution a foregone conclusion.

What now remains to be seen is the reaction of the British public, which is generally very suspicious of the European Project.

Generational Dynamics predicts that there'll be a new west European war, just as there have been west European wars at regular intervals for a millennium or more. Generational Dynamics doesn't predict who the belligerents will be, but trends for the last few years indicate that England and France will, once again, be at war. (17-Dec-05) Permanent Link
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