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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 18-Dec-05
Ariel Sharon in hospital apparently with minor stroke

Web Log - December, 2005

Ariel Sharon in hospital apparently with minor stroke

In a single moment, the fragility of the entire Mideast peace process is exposed.

It's not yet known how serious the problem is, or whether Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon will return to full strength and power after being taken to hospital with a minor stroke.

However, it's suddenly apparent to everyone that there's no one in Israeli politics that's even close to Sharon's stature.

Insofar as there's been any "Mideast peace process" in the last few years, it's been propelled mainly by Sharon's willingness to make unilateral decisions -- the decision to build the barrier surrounding Israel, the decision to evacuate the Gaza Strip, and his decision to abandon the Likud party that he co-founded in 1974, creating a "political earthquake" in Israel.

These decisions have been highly controversial and, as I've said before, I'm not passing judgment on whether they were good or bad decisions; but I am making the point that Sharon is one of the few world leaders left who is actually capable of making major decisions.

Just contrast Sharon with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and his dysfunctional Palestinian government, or contrast it with the equally dysfunctional European Union or the American government, running on "cruise control."

This is what happens in a "generational crisis" period, which has engulfed most of the countries that fought in World War II, since 60 years have passed since that war. For decades, the generations of people who lived through the horrors of WW II have guided the world through international crises, avoiding land mines that could cause a new world war. But the "Baby Boomer" generation, born after the war with no personal memory, does not have the skills to avoid those land mines. For the past few years, this Boomer generation has been taking leadership positions in government, business, education and other organizations around the world, leading the world into increasing confrontation that will lead to a new "clash of civilizations" world war.

Ariel Sharon, born in 1928, and Yasser Arafat, born in 1929, hated each other but still cooperated with each other to prevent a new genocidal Mideast war like the one in the late 1940s. But now Arafat is gone, leaving Gaza and the West Bank to continue their descent into chaos, and Sharon's vulnerability is exposed.

If Sharon recovers, and if Sharon can demonstrate the energy to continue leading Israel, then things will return to where they were; but if Sharon is incapacitated, then Israel's government will degenerate into the same dysfunction as the Palestinian government.

Either way, this incident shows how fragile the entire Mideast peace process is, and how quickly a generational change can occur. (18-Dec-05) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 18-Dec-05 Ariel Sharon in hospital apparently with minor stroke

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 18-Dec-05
Ariel Sharon in hospital apparently with minor stroke