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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 12-Jan-06
Human bird flu becomes widespread and firmly established in Turkey

Web Log - January, 2006

Human bird flu becomes widespread and firmly established in Turkey

With 100+ suspected and confirmed human cases, and thousands of dead birds across the country, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has issued a press release warning that bird flu "could become endemic" to Turkey, and could threaten neighboring countries. FAO is warning these countries, including Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Iraq, Iran and Syria, to be on high alert.

Human H5N1 in Turkey. For each province, the number above the line is confirmed cases of H5N1 in humans, and below the line is the number of suspected cases awaiting tests. <font size=-2>(Source: sabah.com.tr)</font>

Human H5N1 in Turkey. For each province, the number above the line is confirmed cases of H5N1 in humans, and below the line is the number of suspected cases awaiting tests. (Source: sabah.com.tr)

As the adjoining map shows, human bird flu has become widespread across Turkey. It is believed that all the cases came from contact with infected birds, especially in the case of children who play with these birds. It is not believed that any of the cases involve human to human transmission of the virus.

The rapid spread in Turkey of bird flu in birds and now humans has been a surprise to many officials. It now appears to be most likely that bird flu has been spreading among birds in Turkey since October, but hasn't been reported. Discovering bird flu in birds requires a nationwide testing program, something that few countries are doing yet. Thus, when the virus spreads to humans, it's an unexpected surprise. Many experts suspect that bird flu has spread to birds in countries in Africa, without being reported yet.

The situation in Turkey has alarmed officials in countries from Greece to Russia, who are taking additional precautions to prevent the disease from spreading beyond Turkey's borders. One Russian legislator, known for his flamboyance, told a parliament session that Russia should become a no-fly zone for migratory birds from Turkey. “We must force the government to stop the bird migration,” he said. “We must shoot all birds, field all our men and troops ... and force migratory birds to stay where they are.”

All joking aside, we're now entering the most dangerous period of the year for the potential mutation of the highly pathenogenic H5N1 virus to a human to human transmissible form, for reasons that I've previously discussed. This would cause a worldwide pandemic.

Experts are encouraging people to prepare for an H5N1 pandemic by stocking up on food and water and currency and batteries for the entire household to live on for 2-3 months. This may cost a thousand dollars per person, but it's not wasted money since you can always eat the food later if no emergency occurs. Get canned or dried food that can last a long time in storage, and get a large container for storing water. Keep in mind that stored water becomes impure with time, so you'll also need some purifying tablets or bleach to kill bacteria in the water when the time comes. Finally, get whatever medicines you'll need to take care of yourself and your family for a long period of time. (12-Jan-06) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 12-Jan-06 Human bird flu becomes widespread and firmly established in Turkey

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 12-Jan-06
Human bird flu becomes widespread and firmly established in Turkey