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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 24-Jan-06
China Prime Minister warns that country is becoming unstable

Web Log - January, 2006

China Prime Minister warns that country is becoming unstable

Blaming local governments for making a "historic error," Chinese prime minister Wen Jiabao said that corrupt land grabs by local officials are "threatening social stability" and causing violent "mass incidents."

According to China's Ministry of Public Security, there were 87,000 mass incidents in China in 2005, up from 74,000 in 2004 and 58,000 in 2003. "Mass incidents" are "public order disturbances, obstructions of justice, gathering of mobs and stirring up of trouble."

If even one of these disturbances occurred in the U.S. or Europe it would be international news, so having tens of thousands of these in a year in China is mind-blowing. I've described some of these mass uprisings on this web site -- the massacre in Dongzhou,, the violent beating of Chinese democracy activist, and a riot where 50,000 workers clashed with police. These are only the tip of the iceberg.

As I've described before, China is becoming increasingly unstable and is approaching a massive civil war as its bubble economy unravels, along with the rigid social structure originally set up by Mao Zedong in the 1950s and 60s. Today, there are close to 150 million migrant workers (20% of the workforce), mostly peasants who have lost their farms to corrupt land deals by CCP (Chinese Communist Party) officials, who take any jobs they can find in the cities and send money back to their families in vast poverty-stricken rural areas.

What's different this time is that China is actually admitting that the society is becoming unstable. "Some locales are unlawfully occupying farmers' land and not offering reasonable economic compensation and arrangements for livelihoods, and this is sparking mass incidents in the countryside," said Wen. "We absolutely can't commit a historic error over land problems."

The "historic error" refers to the similar corruption that preceded China's previous huge rebellions -- the Taiping Rebellion (1852-64) and Communist Revolution (1934-49) -- each of which consumed the entire country and killed tens of millions of people. Wen is saying that the corrupt land grabs are creating the conditions will inevitably lead to a new nationwide rebellion, perhaps killing millions of people.

Generational Dynamics predicts that China is very close to chaos, and that there are three possible triggers of this chaos:

A massive new rebellion, possibly triggered by the Falun Gong movement;

A collapse of the Chinese economic bubble, such as happened in Japan in 1990 and in America with the 2000 Nasdaq crash; or

Moves by Taiwan leaders toward independence, which would force China to declare war.

The rapid spread of bird flu among birds in China has created an even more dangerous situation, as China has mobilized its 2.3 million man army to "fight bird flu."

Any one of these triggers could occur at any time -- next week, next month, or two or three years from now. Generational Dynamics predicts that all three of these will occur in the next few years, probably sooner rather than later. (24-Jan-06) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 24-Jan-06 China Prime Minister warns that country is becoming unstable

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 24-Jan-06
China Prime Minister warns that country is becoming unstable