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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 30-Jan-06
Bird flu: World holds breath for China and Vietnam Lunar New Year celebrations

Web Log - January, 2006

Bird flu: World holds breath for China and Vietnam Lunar New Year celebrations

If we get through the next month without a pandemic, we may be OK till next season.

It's the Year of the Dog, as the Chinese Lunar New Year launches four days of celebrations. And next week, Vietnam will begin its Lunar New Year festival of Tet.

Avian Influenza (AI) outbreaks in Vietnam in 2004 and 2005 <font size=-2>(Source: iflu.org)</font>

Avian Influenza (AI) outbreaks in Vietnam in 2004 and 2005 (Source: iflu.org)

Both of these celebrations involve massive increases in handling, transporting and slaughtering poultry. As the adjoining graphic shows, the number of bird flu cases in Vietnam spiked greatly during Tet celebrations in 2004 and 2005.

The United Nations and Vietnam have jointly launched a bird flu media campaign, hoping to reduce the prevalence of bird flu this year. Media campaigns have begun in other countries as well, in Asia and Europe.

The great fear is that the pathenogenic H5N1 bird flu virus will mutate in a form that passes easily from human to human, causing a bird flu pandemic which could kill many millions of people.

As we wrote about in January, 2005, the World Health Organization (WHO) feared that a human-to-human bird flu pandemic might start with last season's lunar new year (Tet) celebrations, when many people would be travelling, and more poultry would be transported, slaughtered and consumed.

Bird flu virus mutation is basically a numbers game. A human to human transmissible virus will be formed when somebody simultaneously gets the ordinary human flu and the pathogenic H5N1 bird flu at the same time. At that time, the genes from the two forms of the virus can recombine to form an H5N1 virus that can move easily from human to human.

It's the far greater numbers of recombination opportunities that make a pandemic increasingly likely. Since last year, pathenogenic H5N1 has spread throughout China, west through Asia, into Europe, and has become firmly established among birds in Turkey.

It's not known how far bird flu has spread in many parts of Europe, Africa and Asia. The reason is that there simply are no testing programs in many countries, and the presence of bird flu would not be detected.

Beyond that, there's reason to believe that many countries are refraining from reporting suspected cases, for fear of hurting the country's tourist trade. This is particular evident in the countries surrounding Turkey, which have mysteriously not detected any H5N1, even though it's spread across Turkey from east to west. There's also reason to believe that China is not reporting the full extent of the problem there.

Another debate concerns the question of whether a limited form of human-to-human transmission has already begun. This appears to be the case in Turkey, where the sequencing of the cases within families appears to indicate that some family members have gotten it from each other.

However, such limited human to human transmission requires physical contact, and so cannot spread very widely.

The really dangerous mutation would occur with an additional mutation that would permit human-to-human transmission through the air, through coughing and sneezing.

A reader who is an expert on genome science has written to me to say that he believes that a mutation that permits this kind of rapid human to human transmission will require a second mutation that reduces the virulence of the virus. I have no expertise to evaluate such statements, but if true it would indicate that a full-fledged pandemic would not be a deadly as feared.

At any rate, we are now entering the most dangerous time of the year, the time most likely for a human pandemic. The good news is that if we pass through the next few weeks without a pandemic, then we have a good shot of being safe until next season. (30-Jan-06) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 30-Jan-06 Bird flu: World holds breath for China and Vietnam Lunar New Year celebrations

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 30-Jan-06
Bird flu: World holds breath for China and Vietnam Lunar New Year celebrations