	Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 10-Feb-06
Hamas victory and cartoon controversy significantly affect chances of Mideast war

Web Log - February, 2006

Hamas victory and cartoon controversy significantly affect chances of Mideast war

It's time to change to the world conflict risk graphic.

The world has been changing rapidly in the last few months -- much more quickly than before.

Conflict risk level for next 6-12 months as of: 30-May-2005

W. Europe 1 Arab Israeli 2

Russia Caucasus 2 Kashmir 1

China 2 North Korea 3

Financial 3 Bird flu 3

Key: 1=green 1=Low risk 2=yellow 2=Med 3=red 3=High 4=black 4=Active

The graphic on the right, which I first posted in May, 2005, represents my view of where the greatest dangers are in the world. I once wrote an article on The Six Most Dangerous Regions of the World, so chosen because a regional war in any one of these regions will trigger a world war. The graphic lists those reasons, and I've added a financial crisis and a bird flu pandemic as two additional crises that could trigger a world war.

Generational Dynamics predicts that all of these crises (with the possible exception of a bird flu pandemic, about which Generational Dynamics has nothing to say) will occur in the context of a new world war with near mathematical certainty. However, Generational Dynamics only tells you for sure what your destination is - not how you'll get there. The conflict risk graphic is not a firm prediction; it highlights my opinion about which crises are more likely to occur first.

Here's the new modified graphic:

Conflict risk level for next 6-12 months as of: 9-Feb-2006

W. Europe 1 Arab Israeli 3

Russia Caucasus 2 Kashmir 2

China 2 North Korea 2

Financial 3 Bird flu 3

Key: 1=green 1=Low risk 2=yellow 2=Med 3=red 3=High 4=black 4=Active

We've made three changes:

"Arab Israeli" has changed from (2=Medium risk) to (3=High).
In the past, Palestinian Authority president Yasser Arafat and Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon worked together to prevent another major war, both having lived though the genocidal Arab-Israeli wars of the 1940s that occurred when Palestine was partitioned and the state of Israel was created.
However, a lot has happened since then:
- Yasser Arafat died, leaving behind Mahmoud Abbas, a well-meaning but weak leader of the Palestinians.
- An important generational change has occurred. Both Arafat and Sharon are gone, and the Palestinians is literally a society of children - the average age in Gaza is 15.6.
- Terrorist group Hamas has been elected as the leading party. They have repudiated Arafat's recognition of Israel, and have not renounced suicide bombings. The children are, effectively in charge.
- $1.7 billion of Western aid to the Palestinians is now in doubt. That aid is all that's prevented a Palestinian civil war, so far.
- Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has evidently adopted a policy of intentional Israeli/Palestinian provocation, in order to provoke a war and gain hegemony over the entire region.
- The Danish cartoon controversy has inflamed the Palestinians, along with the rest of the Muslim world.
Generational Dynamics predicts, with near mathematical certainty, that the Arabs and Jews are headed for a new genocidal war that will encompass all the countries in the entire region. The region has been continually sliding in the that direction, and now the possibility of war within six months has to be considered a significant possibility.

"Kashmir" has changed from (1=Low risk) to (2=Med).
Pakistan's President Pervez Musharraf and India's Prime Minister Manmohan Singh have engineered a remarkable Détente that significantly eased tensions over the Kashmir dispute. However, the Danish cartoon controversy has raised tensions in Kashmir as it has throughout the rest of the Muslim world, including the Muslims in India itself.

"North Korea" has changed from (3=High risk) to (2=Med).
North Korea has been openly planning for war for at least a couple of years, and is developing nuclear weapons. However, I've gradually come to believe that North Korea will not do anything without coordinating it with China.
As for China itself, there's no question that it's planning a major war with America, and that it's actively preparing for years with huge annual expenditures for its war machine. Initial objectives will be reunification of Taiwan with the mainland, the destruction of Japan, and control of the Pacific and Indian Ocean sea lanes. However, there's not yet any overt signs that this will happen within the next six months. In addition, from a generational point of view, Chinese President Hu Jintao was born in 1942, and so is in the risk-averse, conciliatory generation that grew up during the last crisis war, the genocidal civil war between forces led by Mao Zedong and Chiang Kai-shek that ended in 1949 with Chiang's flight to Taiwan. For those reasons, I'm leaving china at the (2=Med) risk level, subject to the observation that any major worldwide crisis, including a bird flu or financial crisis, could prompt an immediate move to (3=High).

Here's the long form graphic:

Conflict risk level by region/type for next six months
As of: 9-Feb-2006

W. Europe 1 Rising nationalism and ethnic tensions, but no overt national hostilities yet

Arab Israeli 3 Hamas election victory, loss of Ariel Sharon, rising influence of Iran, now fueled by Danish cartoon contoversy, could soon send this region spiraling out of control

Russia Caucasus 2 Simmering tensions remain, but Beslan massacre did not provoke retaliation, and Putin's hand is remaining steady.

Kashmir 2 Détente between Pakistan's Musharaff and India's Singh has significantly eased tensions, but Pakistan is becoming increasingly restive.

China 2 China is unraveling internally and is mobilizing for eventual war with US and Japan over Taiwan, as Taiwanese opinion shifts towards independence

North Korea 2 Kim Jong-il mobilizing for war at any time against South Korea and Japan, but will wait for China

Financial 3 Exponentially increasing public debt and the end of a corporate earnings streak make a financial crisis likely soon.

Bird flu 3 Mutations have allowed virus to spread more efficiently from Asia to Europe, the Mideast and Africa. A human pandemic is a possibility, though not a certainty.

Key: 1=green 1=Low risk 2=yellow 2=Med 3=red 3=High 4=black 4=Active

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 10-Feb-06 Hamas victory and cartoon controversy significantly affect chances of Mideast war

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 10-Feb-06
Hamas victory and cartoon controversy significantly affect chances of Mideast war