	Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 18-Feb-06
International political chaos grips Israel, Palestine, and everyone else, as Hamas takes over on Saturday

Web Log - February, 2006

International political chaos grips Israel, Palestine, and everyone else, as Hamas takes over on Saturday

No one, not even Hamas itself, has any idea what to do next, except to let events play out as they will.

Hamas takes control of the Palestinian government today, after winning a parliamentary majority in the elections three weeks ago.

But just how much control should they take? Should they take as much power as possible from current Palestinian president Mahmous Abbas, or should they leave Abbas in charge, to keep the West happy?

It's a big deal, because it's all about money. America, which has given $1.5 billion in aid to Palestinians in the last decade, has announced that it will not give aid to a Hamas government, since Hamas is a terrorist group. In fact, $50 million in aid already given to the Palestinians will be returned to the US for this reason.

The European Union, which has given even more money than America, has a similar policy. And Israel, which collects customs duties and sales taxes as a service for the Palestinian Authority, and repays the Palestinians about $16 million per month, has said it will stop passing that money through. Indeed, Israel is threatening economic war against the Palestinians, by refusing to pay money and by closing borders.

In the past, Hamas has claimed credit for numerous suicide bombings directed against Israelis. “Is anyone prepared to give us a guarantee that such money won’t be used in suicide bombings?” says an Israeli spokesman.

With an election coming in a few weeks, Israeli polticians have no idea what to do. No Israeli politician can be seen to give into Hamas, so the three candidates are all taking a tough line. But they can't take too tough a line, because they have to leave room for compromise.

The Americans and Europeans have the same dilemma. There's no way that anyone can provide aid to a Hamas that might use the money for weapons to be used against Israel, but there has to be room for compromise.

In order to break this logjam, Hamas has to rescind its harsh positions. Hamas has never agreed to peace with Israel, and hasn't even agreed to recognize Israel as a nation. Yasser Arafat has recognized Israel in the past, but Hamas is threatening to reverse that recognition.

But if Hamas tries to change its positions, then it will piss off their base. Remember that the Palestinians are a society of children -- with a median age in the Gaza Strip is 15.6. These kids will not be happy if Hamas decides to sign a peace deal with Israel.

But the Palestinian Authority is broke. They have thousands of employees to pay, as well as numerous other projects, and no money to pay them with. If Israels fee repayment and America's aid and Europe's aid are all cut off, the Palestinians will completely destablize and fall into civil war.

When the "Mideast Peace Roadmap" was announced in May, 2003, the world thought that we were getting close. Do you remember what the "Roadmap" said? It said that there would be side-by-side Palestinian and Israeli states by 2005. That was last year, in case you've lost track.

It was on May 1, 2003, that I first wrote about the Mideast situation on this web site, and explained what was really going to happen.

I explained that Yasser Arafat and Ariel Sharon may hate each other, but they're both committed to avoiding a new crisis war in the Mideast. I explained that Generational Dynamics predicts that the region was headed for a new crisis war, with absolute certainty, like the massive bloodshed that occurred in 1948 and 1949 when the state of Israel was created out of a partitioned Palestine. I explained that when Arafat and Sharon were gone, then an important generational change will have occurred, and the Mideast will descend quickly info further chaos, with total war not far off.

Everybody I told those predicts to disagreed with me. Some called me an idiot, and others just wished me luck. But since that time, almost three years ago, things have gone exactly as I predicted. Every other pundit and analyst, as far as I know, has gotten everything wrong on the Mideast. This is the only web site that's gotten everything right, and that's because it's based on Generational Dynamics.

It's now 57 years since the end of the genocidal war between Arabs and Jews of the late 1940s. That war was so horrible that anyone who lived through it vowed that they would never let it happen again -- that's the basis for the Generational Dynamics prediction that it's only now that a new genocidal war will occur, since the people who lived through that war are now all disappearing (retiring or dying), all at once.

In the meantime, the Israelis, the Palestinians, the Americans and the Europeans are all frozen in place, with no idea what to do next. Hamas needs the money, but can't make the necessary concessions. Undoubtedly there'll be something worked out -- perhaps the money will go to non-government organizations according to some formula. But in the meantime the world has no idea what to do next, for fear that some path will lead to know. What Generational Dynamics tells us is that all paths lead to war. (18-Feb-06) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 18-Feb-06 International political chaos grips Israel, Palestine, and everyone else, as Hamas takes over on Saturday

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 18-Feb-06
International political chaos grips Israel, Palestine, and everyone else, as Hamas takes over on Saturday