	Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 20-Feb-06
International "identity group" formation accelerates among Muslims worldwide since cartoon controversy

Web Log - February, 2006

International "identity group" formation accelerates among Muslims worldwide since cartoon controversy

From Nigeria to Indonesia, regional conflicts are turning into anti-American riots, thanks to the Danish cartoon controversy that has inflamed the entire Muslim world.

In Nigeria, low-level violence between Muslims and Christians has been going on for decades. But on Saturday, Nigerian Muslims protested the Danish cartoons by attacking Christians and burning churches, killing at least 15 people.

At least 10 people were killed in the Libyan city of Benghazi last Friday in riots triggered when an Italian minister was deliberately provocative by wearing a T-shirt with the Danish cartoons on it.

Pakistan has long had continuing terrorist violence between Sunni and Shi'a Muslims. I wrote an article in 2004 about this terrorism. But on Sunday, Pakistani police had to break up a riot by thousands protesting the Danish cartoons, and arrest several hundred protesters.

Indonesia is the world's most populous Muslim nation. It's been hit by a series of terrorist bombings since 2002, the most recent one on the resort island of Bali in October, 2005. Now, for the last couple of weeks, militant Muslims have protesting the Danish cartoons. On Sunday, more than 200 members of the militant Islamic Defenders Front pelted the U.S. embassy in Jakarta with eggs and stones.

In the United Kingdom, a new poll shows that 40% of UK Muslims want Sharia or Muslim law introduced in the country. 50% say that interracial relations are worsening, and 20% have sympathy for the "feelings and motives" of the July 7, 2005, London subway suicide bombers.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this is called "identity group" formation, meaning that disparate groups in places around the world are now identifying with one another for the purpose of conflict. A year ago, an ordinary person, a "man on the street" in each of these countries might have identified himself, if asked, as "a Nigerian" or "a Pakistani" or "an Indonesian." Today, such a "man on the street" may have become inflamed by the Danish cartoon controversy and, in that case, will identify himself first as "a Muslim," part of the worldwide struggle against Christians and Jews.

There's absolutely no rational reason why this kind of reaction should take place at exactly this time in history because of some cartoons published in a Danish newspaper last September. It's crazy. It's ridiculous. It makes no sense at all. But it happens. It's part of the human DNA. It's like sex. It's purely emotional. Tell my why people have sex with the wrong people, and I'll tell you why the Danish cartoons have created this controversy.

On Sunday evening, before writing this article, I watched the 2004 movie Hotel Rwanda on Showtime. This movie is about the 1994 genocidal crisis war in Rwanda, where the Hutus killed almost a million Tutsis. The movie was graphic, but left unexplained how it was possible for someone to pick up a machete, murder his neighbor, dismember his body, rape his wife, and murder and dismember her.

But that's what happens in "generational crisis" periods. It happened in Darfur last year and may still be happening; it happened in the Balkans in the 1990s, in Cambodia in the 1970s, and throughout Europe and Asia during World War II. And it's what we're headed for today, starting next month, next year, or shortly thereafter.

Conflict risk level for next 6-12 months as of: 9-Feb-2006

W. Europe 1 Arab Israeli 3

Russia Caucasus 2 Kashmir 2

China 2 North Korea 2

Financial 3 Bird flu 3

Key: 1=green 1=Low risk 2=yellow 2=Med 3=red 3=High 4=black 4=Active

The only thing that we don't year have a clear picture of is the scenario -- the sequence of events, shocks and surprises that will lead to the various declarations of war. The adjoining graphic shows the most dangerous regions of the world, in the sense that a regional crisis is almost certain to lead to a world war. The toppling of a country's leader or a small conflict spiraling out of control are examples of unexpected events that can lead, step by step, to a new world war.

Here's one particular thing to watch for: President Bush will be paying a state visit to President Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan, ten days from now. Radical Islamists, which have been stirring up pubic fury in Pakistan for months, are planning to use the visit to stir up massive street protests throughout the country, in the hope of unseating Musharraf. If successful, the détente that Pakistan's President Musharraf and India's Prime Minister Manmohan Singh have engineered over the disputed Kashmir region will probably become quickly undone.

Another place to watch closely is the Palestinian region. With Hamas now in control, the Americans and the Europeans are refusing to provide aid, and Israel is refusing to pay the Palestinians the taxes it's collected on their behalf. Since the Palestinian Authority has little money to pay salaries, the region could become very unstable very quickly.

As usual, Generational Dynamics tells you what your destination is, but doesn't tell you how you'll get there. We know that we're headed for a "clash of civilizations" world war, but we have no way of knowing which regional conflict will explode first. We may know soon. (20-Feb-06) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 20-Feb-06 International "identity group" formation accelerates among Muslims worldwide since cartoon controversy

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 20-Feb-06
International "identity group" formation accelerates among Muslims worldwide since cartoon controversy