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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 23-Feb-06
Bombing of 1200 year old Shi'ite mosque inflames Iraq to the verge of massive civil war rhetoric

Web Log - February, 2006

Bombing of 1200 year old Shi'ite mosque inflames Iraq to the verge of massive civil war rhetoric

Shi'ites conducted over 90 revenge attacks on Sunni shrines on Wednesday, after insurgents detonated bombs inside the al-Askariya shrine in Samarra, near Baghdad.

Golden dome of al-Askariya shrine in Samarra, near Baghdad

Golden dome of al-Askariya shrine in Samarra, near Baghdad

The shrine, built in the 800s AD, contains sacred tombs and is capped by Golden Dome 68 meters wide, containing more than 72,000 gold pieces.

The insurgent bombing left the golden dome destroyed, and the revenge attacks on Sunni mosques began almost immediately. By the end of the day more than 90 mosques lay damaged or wrecked, and at least eighteen Sunnis including three clerics, were reported murdered. There have been riots and demands for revenge.

There's been talk of civil war all day long, especially by journalists and pundits. The BBC World Service has been talking about a possible civil war all day, and CNN's Wolf Blitzer used his most anxious tone of voice to talk about Iraq "on the verge of civil war." On CNN International, they called the new violence a "tipping point."

As I've been saying on this web site repeatedly for three years now, there will be no civil war in Iraq because a crisis civil war is impossible. Only one generation has passed since the genocidal Iran/Iraq war of the 1980s, meaning that Iraq is in a "generational awakening" era, and any crisis war is impossible during an awakening era, similar to America's "generational awakening" period in the 1960s-70s.

A civil war could only come 25-30 years from now, when Iraq is approaching a new "generational crisis" period. Yes, there will be some riots and demonstrations. Yes, there may be additional revenge bombings and yes, there may be some low-level violence. But the rioting and bombings and the violence will fizzle out soon, and will not spiral up into a civil war.

I've made many predictions on this web site in the last three years, based on Generational Dynamics analysis, and I've bragged that I've never gotten any of these predictions wrong. I've also bragged that if you want to know what's going on in the world and what's going to happen, this is the only place in the world that actually tells you. But maybe this will be the one the proves my undoing -- maybe tomorrow we'll see that the Sunnis and Shi'ites are engaged in a new massive civil war. This would make the pundits and journalists right and me wrong, for the first time. Well, let's wait and see. Generational Dynamics predicts that there will be no Iraqi civil war, so you can be pretty certain that there won't be a civil war. (23-Feb-06) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 23-Feb-06 Bombing of 1200 year old Shi'ite mosque inflames Iraq to the verge of massive civil war rhetoric

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 23-Feb-06
Bombing of 1200 year old Shi'ite mosque inflames Iraq to the verge of massive civil war rhetoric