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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 24-Feb-06
Fear of Iraqi civil war nears hysteria

Web Log - February, 2006

Fear of Iraqi civil war nears hysteria

But there is NO CHANCE WHATSOEVER of a civil war.

Here are typical front page headlines on newspapers around the world:

Iraq slides toward civil war
Specter of civil war in Iraq grows
Iraq starts to spin out of control in day of vengeance
Revenge squads stalk streets as war of the mosques tears country ...
Iraq on brink of religious war
Shrine bombing: Sunnis give a lesson in how to start a civil war
Mosque Attack Pushes Iraq Toward Civil War

The BBC World Service talked about civil war all day Thursday in the darkest tones. And I just heard someone on CNN International say, "In the next few days the gates of hell may open to a new civil war."

As I said yesterday (see previous item, below), a civil war in Iraq today is absolutely impossible. It will not happen, because Iraq is in a "generational awakening" era, just one generation past the end of the genocidal Iran/Iraq war of the 1980s.

The pictures coming out of Iraq on Thursday were not of Shiites yelling "Kill the Sunnis." They were not of Sunnis yelling, "Kill the Shiites."

What we've been seeing is huge masses of people -- tens of thousands of them -- demonstrating and demanding political changes. They're blaming the government and they're blaming the Americans. But they aren't looking for blood. There aren't even any signs of civil war.

These huge demonstrations are typical of awakening eras. Two years ago, I wrote a lengthy article comparing Iraq today to America in the 1960s, when America had its last awakening era, just one generation past the end of World War II.

Let me try to explain this a different way. Suppose Ahmed, an angry young Iraqi man, tells his mom, "Mom, I'm going to fight the bad guys (Sunnis or Shiites). Allah be blessed!" Now, Mom is in her 30s or 40s. She survived the bloody Iran/Iraq war, and she still has nightmares about it. She says, "Ahmed, you're not going anywhere. I lost my father and husband in war, and you lost your father and your uncle. Your friend Mahmoud? His mother was raped repeatedly. Most of the people in our neighborhood were beaten, poisoned, killed, raped or tortured, or all of those. I need you right here, and you're going to stay here." So Ahmed stays there and there's no civil war.

There's another thing that these moms know. It's terrible that the al-Askariya shrine was bombed, and that dozens of Sunni mosques were bombed, but these moms know that they're just buildings, and that they can be repaired or rebuilt. There have also been several dozen deaths, but those were at the hands of the insurgents, whom everyone increasingly dislikes. There isn't enough anger and hatred between Sunnis and Shiites because all of them are well aware that it's the insurgents -- led by Jordanian terrorist Abu Musab al-Zarqawi -- that's causing the deaths. A civil war doesn't even make sense.

There's a lot of wishful thinking going on in the press these days. The BBC World Service, which seethes with anti-Americanism, is only too happy to bias its reporting toward the outcome that's most unfavorable for Americans -- and for British too, by the way. And many other international news organizations are exactly the same. If they could get past their bias, even they could begin to understand why a civil war is impossible, and they wouldn't let their biases influence their reporting so much.

Incidentally, let me add (in case it isn't clear) that none of this is an endorsement of Bush or any political party. In fact, as I point out on my web site all the time, all politicians compete with each other to say the dumbest things, because they're all totally oblivious to even the most obvious generational considerations. In Iraq, Iran, Palestine, China, and Europe, even the simplest generational analysis provides enormous insights that no politician of any party appears capable of understanding, with the result that mistakes in judgment and tactics keep being made, and that includes the current administration.

Conflict risk level for next 6-12 months as of: 9-Feb-2006

W. Europe 1 Arab Israeli 3

Russia Caucasus 2 Kashmir 2

China 2 North Korea 2

Financial 3 Bird flu 3

Key: 1=green 1=Low risk 2=yellow 2=Med 3=red 3=High 4=black 4=Active

On this web site, the analyses are based on Generational Dynamics. And from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the Mideast is headed for a major regional war between Arabs and Jews, and between Pakistanis and Indians over Kashmir. All of these people are in "generational crisis" eras and the young men don't have moms telling them to stay home, so these wars will occur with certainty. Iraq may be drawn into these wars, but in a "generational awakening" era, they'll fight with little enthusiasm. (24-Feb-06) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 24-Feb-06 Fear of Iraqi civil war nears hysteria

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 24-Feb-06
Fear of Iraqi civil war nears hysteria