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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 3-Mar-06
Bird flu expected in North America this spring

Web Log - March, 2006

Bird flu expected in North America this spring

Implications for you and your pets

H5N1 bird flu has been in 20 new countries in Europe and Africa in the last month alone, and is now pretty well established throughout Europe, the Mideast and Africa. About 100 humans worldwide have died from bird flu, but it's still very difficult for a human to contract the disease. The feared mutation that would permit easy (through the air) human to human spread, causing a worldwide pandemic, has not yet happened, though many experts believe it could happen any day, or next season if not this season.

However, the rapid spread of bird flu among birds in Africa means that the spread to North America birds cannot be far off. There will be a large migration of birds from Africa to North America this spring through the "Atlantic Americas Flyway," and the countries on this side of the Atlantic are just as vulnerable as countries on the other side. In fact, dead birds recently found in the Bahamas are causing concern that it may have already arrived, though Bahamian officials downplayed the concern.

The arrival of bird flu may or may not be detected for some time after it happens. There's evidence that bird flu was already in several European countries for a couple of months before it was detected, Now, based on the fact that North American gene sequences have been found in Astrakhan (in Russia, on the Caspian sea), some researchers believe that H5N1-infected birds have already been to North America and back to Asia.

In Germany, a cat has died of confirmed H5N1. The cat apparently caught the disease by eating an infected bird. The death from H5N1 of the cat has raised concerns in Europe that house pets, dogs as well as cats, are especially vulnerable. Hundreds of Germans are dumping their cats in shelters, for fear of contracting the disease from their pets. As a result, German authorities have ordered pet owners in all bird flu-hit regions to keep cats indoors and dogs on leashes.

Major flyways, bird flu status <font size=-2>(Source: UN FAO)</font>

Major flyways, bird flu status (Source: UN FAO)

The disease is spreading rapidly among birds around the world. Ever since last spring, when H5N1 was found to have infected birds at Lake Qinghaihu, the mid-China international meeting point and breeding ground for migratory birds, bird flu was poised to spread around the world. The Fall 2005 migration has already spread it to west Asia, the Mideast, Europe and Africa within a few short months.

When the Spring migration begins in a few weeks, tens of billions of birds will fly along the world's major flyways. It's likely that all remaining continents will be reached, including the Americas. China alone is expecting major new outbreaks of bird flu throughout the country. In just Jiangsu province, almost 10 million migratory birds will pass through, requiring the officials to set up a huge monitoring program involving 1,000 workers.

What's happening in Jiangsu province is being repeated all over the world. This will provide infinitely many more opportunities for different versions of the virus to intermix, greatly increasing the probability of a recombination that will create the mutations that allow the virus to pass easily from human to human, creating a worldwide human pandemic.

Whether a human pandemic happens or not, it's still necessary to prepare for the all-but-certain spread into North America. Here are some questions and answers:

Should I stop eating chicken?

All chicken for sale in the developed world is being tested for bird flu (and other diseases as well), so any packaged products you get from a supermarket are safe. At any rate, thoroughly cooking chicken or eggs would kill any virus anyway.

However, just to be safe, it's not a good idea to eat raw or undercooked chicken or eggs, but that's really never been a good idea anyway.

What about handling and preparing chicken?

If you live in Africa or Asia, or if you obtain chicken from your own or a friend's farm, then you should exercise sensible caution. Seek out instructions for proper handling and preparation to keep any disease from infecting you, or staying behind on tables, dishes, utensils, and other surfaces.

Incidentally, a lot of people in Europe are refusing to eat chicken, with the result that chicken prices are coming down sharply. Since chicken is completely safe if proper precautions are taken, you can save a chunk of money on your food bill.

I have pet birds.

Plan on keeping them indoors permanently.

I have a cat or dog or other pet

If bird flu is detected anywhere near you, keep these pets indoors.

How long will this be going on?

Bird flu will probably become endemic around the world, meaning that we'll have it for years.

Conflict risk level for next 6-12 months as of: 9-Feb-2006

W. Europe 1 Arab Israeli 3

Russia Caucasus 2 Kashmir 2

China 2 North Korea 2

Financial 3 Bird flu 3

Key: 1=green 1=Low risk 2=yellow 2=Med 3=red 3=High 4=black 4=Active

What does this have to with Generational Dynamics?

Nothing, really, except that a human bird flu pandemic would probably trigger the other major conflict risks, including a major financial crisis and a world war.

How can I protect myself and my family?

I once again strongly urge my readers to prepare for an H5N1 pandemic or for any kind of emergency (think of hurricane Katrina) by stocking up on food and water and currency and batteries for the entire household to live on for 2-3 months. This may cost a thousand dollars per person, but it's not wasted money since you can always eat the food later if no emergency occurs. Get canned or dried food that can last a long time in storage, and get a large container for storing water. Keep in mind that stored water becomes impure with time, so you'll also need some purifying tablets or bleach to kill bacteria in the water when the time comes. Finally, get whatever medicines you'll need to take care of yourself and your family for a long period of time. (3-Mar-06) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 3-Mar-06 Bird flu expected in North America this spring

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 3-Mar-06
Bird flu expected in North America this spring