	Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 7-Mar-06
Israel is becoming increasingly dysfunctional

Web Log - March, 2006

Israel is becoming increasingly dysfunctional

With Sharon in a coma, elections coming soon, and growing Hamas influence, Israel's government is less and less able to make it through the day.

In May, 2003, when the Mideast Roadmap for Peace was announced, Yasser Arafat and Ariel Sharon were leading the Palestinians and Israelis, respectively. I wrote that, contrary to what everyone else was saying, these two men were holding back their respective populations from war, and that when they were gone, the region would descend into chaos and war.

When Arafat died, Mahmoud Abbas took over as Palestinian Authority president, and the West Bank and especially Gaza, became increasingly unruly and ungovernable.

When Ariel Sharon collapsed, I wrote that no one could replace Sharon, and that Israel would also become ungovernable, just like the Palestinians.

That's what happening. The main problem is how to deal with Hamas, the Palestinian terrorist group that recently when won a major election victory.

"Trouble is, it is not at all clear what government policy is nowadays, since practically every Kadima [the political party in power] politician has a different approach to dealing with Hamas, ranging from [the] promise to either arrest the designated Hamas prime minister, Ismail Haniye, ... to Shimon Peres’ insistence that Israel engage PA President Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazin) in talks aimed at reaching some agreement," according to Robert Rosenberg's Ariga column for Monday.

Even more important, Israel's "defense establishment is recommending more unilateral steps meant to isolate the Palestinians -- including cutting off fuel supplies to them, ... and cutting any ties between Gaza and the West Bank," according to Rosenberg. "The goal of such moves is not clear, other than to punish the Hamas for getting elected. ... Israel would reduce to an absolute minimum any cooperation with several key humanitarian agencies, including the Red Cross and UNRWA, while maintaining just enough cooperation with the Palestinian health services to prevent catastrophe. Israel, of course, would not transfer any funds to the PA -- lest it be used for salaries a Hamas government would have to pay. ... [The] generals are recommending large-scale withdrawals in the West Bank, retaining ‘security zones,’ including all of the Jordan Valley, and several settlement blocs, including an enlarged Maale Adumim, effectively cutting the West Bank in half. These are all recommendations to the political echelon, of course, not final decisions made by the government."

The reason that Israelis without Ariel Sharon are frozen into indecision is because they're waiting to see what Hamas is going to do. Yasser Arafat recognized Israel as a legitimate state. Will Hamas repudiate Arafat's recognition of Israel? Hamas leaders recently visited Vladimir Putin in Moscow, where they were told that they had to recognize Israel. But so far, standing firm, refusing to do so.

The Palestinians, in turn, are unable to make decisions either. The first meeting of the new Palestinian Parliament broke up in a bitter walkout by members of Fatah, the party that had lost to Hamas in the elections. Fatah's leader is Abbas, and the split between Fatah and Hamas may be mean that Abbas may not last long as Palestinian Authority President.

And Hamas itself doesn't speak with a single voice. The leaders of Hamas, the ones who visited Putin in Moscow, are in an older generation sitting in the West Bank, as is appropriate for the potential leaders of the Palestinians.

The problem is, as I've mentioned before is that the median age in the Gaza Strip is 15.6. The Palestinians are a society of children -- literally -- when you consider their ages.

(I've read many, many articles on the Gaza Strip in recent weeks, and not a single one has mentioned this remarkable demographic fact. As usually, the journalists, politicians, pundits and high-priced analysts are oblivious to the simplest, most obvious generational facts.)

So the Hamas leaders can't just do what they want. They have to satisfy their major consituencies, one of which is a large group of children living in Gaza. These children will freak out if their Hamas leaders recognize Israel. That's why it's not going to happen.

Did you follow the chain I've been developing?

The Israelis are frozen because of the upcoming election and because they're waiting to see whether the new Palestinian government is going to recognize Israel. The Palestinian government is embroiled in a bitter split between the majority Hamas and the now-minority Fatah.

And Hamas has to respond to the demands of the children in Gaza.

Follow that logic, and you see that it's those crazy kids in Gaza that are running the show. What it comes down to is that everyone is waiting to see whether they'll settle down and behave, like good little boys and girls, or whether they'll explode into violence.

This is where Generational Dynamics guides us. These kids in this generation are ready to get it on with Israel. The genocidal war between Arabs and Jews in the late 1940s is as meaningless to them as the fall of the Roman Empire.

And we haven't even mentioned Iran -- which is calling for the destruction of Israel and is supplying weapons to Lebanese terrorist group Hizbollah.

Generational Dynamics predicts that there'll be a major new genocidal war between Arabs and Jews, and it will engulf the entire region, leading to a new world war, if one hasn't already begun in Asia or elsewhere. (7-Mar-06) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 7-Mar-06 Israel is becoming increasingly dysfunctional

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 7-Mar-06
Israel is becoming increasingly dysfunctional