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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 7-Apr-06
Bird flu spreading at lightning speed around the globe

Web Log - April, 2006

Bird flu spreading at lightning speed around the globe

Expected to reach North America within weeks, the US and Canada are stepping up detection programs.

"This is a really serious global situation. During the last three months globally, there has been an enormous and rapid spread of H5N1." That's the assessment of Dr. David Nabarro, the U.N.'s chief coordinator for avian influenza.

It's now reached 30 new countries in 2006 alone, spreading "at lightning speed," according to Nabarro.

The UK is the latest European country to be struck by the lethal H5N1, when a wild swan in Scotland was confirmed to have been killed by the virus.

Within a few weeks, millions of birds will migrate from Asia, over the Bering Straits into Alaska and Canada. The spread of H5N1 to North America at that time is all but certain.

U.S. agencies have announced an early detection program.

The main focus will be on studying about 15,000 eiders and geese among 28 bird species that arrive in Alaska from Asia. Alaskans who see any strange or dead birds are asked to call the hot line at 1-866-527-3358.

However, H5N1 has has now been confirmed in the African country Lagos, which is on the East Atlantic Flyway of migratings. This means that H5N1 can also enter North America through northeastern Canada, and at other migration points across the Atlantic.

Other recent related news includes the following:

A scientific advisory panel has said that all poultry should now be cooked to a temperature of 165 degrees or more -- hot enough to kill any lingering virus. Officials have ordered about 80 companies to change their packaging labels to make this clear.

People who live near any region where bird flu has been found are urged to keep their cats indoors. What happens is this: Migrating birds drop infected feces almost anywhere, and anyone can pick up the infection on his shoes and carry it indoors. However, cats are even more likely to spread H5N1, because they can give it to other cats.

Bird watchers are particularly urged to be on the lookout for sick or dead birds, since that can be a sign of H5N1.

With regard to the possibility of human to human transmission, nothing has changed. It's mainly a numbers game, and as H5N1 has spread farther and farther around the world, the opportunities for a mutation or recombination that will permit the virus to spread easily from human to human becomes more likely.

A human pandemic could begin at any time -- next week, next month, next year, or after that.

As I've said before, you and your family should prepare immediately for a possible pandemic. If human to human transmission became public next week on Monday, then by Tuesday all the shelves in grocery stores would be bare. If you stock up on food now, then you'll be sure to have what you need. Even if you think that you can beat the crowds to the grocery store, you should still stock up in advance. If you get your canned food after the panic begins, then you're depriving somebody else of food. But if you stock up in advance, then the shelves will be restocked, and you won't deprive someone else of food.

I once again strongly urge my readers to prepare for an H5N1 pandemic or for any kind of emergency (think of hurricane Katrina) by stocking up on food and water and currency and batteries for the entire household to live on for 2-3 months. This may cost a thousand dollars per person, but it's not wasted money since you can always eat the food later if no emergency occurs. Get canned or dried food that can last a long time in storage, and get a large container for storing water. Keep in mind that stored water becomes impure with time, so you'll also need some purifying tablets or bleach to kill bacteria in the water when the time comes. Finally, get whatever medicines you'll need to take care of yourself and your family for a long period of time. (7-Apr-06) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 7-Apr-06 Bird flu spreading at lightning speed around the globe

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 7-Apr-06
Bird flu spreading at lightning speed around the globe