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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 20-Apr-06
An eerie similarity: Chinese President Hu Jintao and Donald Rumsfeld

Web Log - April, 2006

Hu gives President Bush a copy of Sun Tzu's "The Art of War" when they meet on Thursday.

Pundits are saying that Hu wants to help Bush learn how to fight the Iraq war, but it seems more likely to me that he's warning Bush about Taiwan.

Sun Tzu

Sun Tzu

The Art of War, written in the sixth century BC, is probably the most famous book on military strategies and tactics ever written. The silk edition given to Bush is a powerful message.

Taiwan is the number one issue on Hu's mind these days, because 60% of Chinese people believe that it's the #1 Sino-U.S. issue, and other polls have shown most Chinese believe that the U.S. and China will have a war over Taiwan.

The warning to Bush comes from a Chinese leader who is genial, well-liked, but enigmatic:

Yet in this sense, Hu reflects present-day China: As leader, he has not yet found a clear pathway, sources say. His country is at a major juncture of greater expectation, but with no clear direction or footing, socially or politically. Hu is not a zealous ideologue, a visionary economist, nor is he ready to force a war over Taiwan. He is cautious, lawyerly, a survivor, say numerous scholars, diplomats, and party sources. To the Chinese, he is as much a mystery as he is to the foreign community in Beijing. Whether he has yet consolidated power in China's secretive leadership enclave is still speculated about.

Now think about our own generational differences here in America. This description of Hu doesn't sound like someone from the G.I. generation, the decisive people that won World War II, nor from the Baby Boomer generation, the self-absorbed people that can't do anything but argue.

Hu Jintao

Hu Jintao

No, Hu Jintao sounds like someone from our Silent generation, the people who grew up during the Great Depression and World War II. William Strauss and Neil Howe, in their book Generations, describes people of the Silent generation as problem solvers. But, "their solutions -- fairness, openness, due process, expertise -- reflect a lack of surefootedness, but also a keen sense of how and why humans fall short of grand civic plans or ideal moral standards. Silent appeals for change have seldom arisen from power or fury, but rather through a self-conscious humanity and tender social conscience.... Lacking an independent voice, they have adopted the moral relativism of the skilled arbitrator, mediating arguments between others -- and reaching out to people of all cultures, races, ages, and handicaps." (Generations, p. 282)

Any generation that grows up during a crisis war is called an "Artist generation," because of their sensitivity to the needs of other people.

Hu Jintao is deeply embedded in China's last Artist generation. He was born in 1942, seven years before the end of China's last crisis war, the violent, genocidal civil war that began with Mao Zedong's "Long March" in 1934, and ended in 1949, after the deaths of tens of millions of Chinese, with the flight of Chiang Kai-shek and his defeated army to the island of Taiwan.

Conflict risk level for next 6-12 months as of: 9-Feb-2006

W. Europe 1 Arab Israeli 3

Russia Caucasus 2 Kashmir 2

China 2 North Korea 2

Financial 3 Bird flu 3

Key: 1=green 1=Low risk 2=yellow 2=Med 3=red 3=High 4=black 4=Active

In my conflict risk graphic, I've often considered increasing the risk level for China from 2 (medium risk) to 3 (high risk), but one of the factors holding me back was that China's President is from the Artist generation, and is very unlikely to make an actual decision to wage war preemptively.

These are the things that lead me to make a comparison between Hu and Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld. Rumsfeld is also in an Artist generation -- America's Silent Generation. No matter what one may think of him, there's no doubt that Rumsfeld extremely genial, and always manages to maintain his sense of humor, even under the most hostile questioning by the Wasington press corps.

Rumsfeld is also a very unlikely person to initiate a war; he certainly didn't make the decision to invade Iraq.

But here's the point: Once the decision had been made by President Bush, Rumsfeld prosecuted the war with brutal energy. I still remember Rumsfeld at press conferences during the Afghan and Iraq wars, responding to a reporter's question with something like the following: "We aren't trying to be nice to these people; what we want is to kill them."

Rumsfeld can say that without flinching because he grew up at a time when there were only two choices: kill the Germans and the Japanese, or be killed by them. I always felt a great deal of sadness in Rumsfeld as I watched the press conferences, but a ruthlessness as well.

Similarly, Hu Jintao may never be the one who makes the decision to go to war over Taiwan, but he won't have to - the decision will be made by the Communist Party's Central Committee, by people who are in younger generations and quite willing to declare war. Once the decision is made, Hu will be like Rumsfeld -- he'll pursue the war energetically and ruthlessly.

So what I'm imagining about Hu Jintao as he meets Bush is that, as an Artist, he'll be reaching out with sadness, hoping to prevent a war over Taiwan. But he'll also be warning Bush that the war will be pursued ruthlessly.

How ruthlessly? Consider the following commentary in Lionel Giles' 1910 translation of The Art of War:

Sun Tzu replied: "You may."

Ho Lu asked: "May the test be applied to women?"

The answer was again in the affirmative, so arrangements were made to bring 180 ladies out of the Palace. Sun Tzu divided them into two companies, and placed one of the King's favorite concubines at the head of each. He then bade them all take spears in their hands, and addressed them thus: "I presume you know the difference between front and back, right hand and left hand?"

The girls replied: Yes.

Sun Tzu went on: "When I say "Eyes front," you must look straight ahead. When I say "Left turn," you must face towards your left hand. When I say "Right turn," you must face towards your right hand. When I say "About turn," you must face right round towards your back."

Again the girls assented. The words of command having been thus explained, he set up the halberds and battle-axes in order to begin the drill. Then, to the sound of drums, he gave the order "Right turn." But the girls only burst out laughing. Sun Tzu said: "If words of command are not clear and distinct, if orders are not thoroughly understood, then the general is to blame."

So he started drilling them again, and this time gave the order "Left turn," whereupon the girls once more burst into fits of laughter. Sun Tzu: "If words of command are not clear and distinct, if orders are not thoroughly understood, the general is to blame. But if his orders ARE clear, and the soldiers nevertheless disobey, then it is the fault of their officers."

So saying, he ordered the leaders of the two companies to be beheaded. Now the king of Wu was watching the scene from the top of a raised pavilion; and when he saw that his favorite concubines were about to be executed, he was greatly alarmed and hurriedly sent down the following message: "We are now quite satisfied as to our general's ability to handle troops. If we are bereft of these two concubines, our meat and drink will lose their savor. It is our wish that they shall not be beheaded."

Sun Tzu replied: "Having once received His Majesty's commission to be the general of his forces, there are certain commands of His Majesty which, acting in that capacity, I am unable to accept."

Accordingly, he had the two leaders beheaded, and straightway installed the pair next in order as leaders in their place. When this had been done, the drum was sounded for the drill once more; and the girls went through all the evolutions, turning to the right or to the left, marching ahead or wheeling back, kneeling or standing, with perfect accuracy and precision, not venturing to utter a sound. Then Sun Tzu sent a messenger to the King saying: "Your soldiers, Sire, are now properly drilled and disciplined, and ready for your majesty's inspection. They can be put to any use that their sovereign may desire; bid them go through fire and water, and they will not disobey."

But the King replied: "Let our general cease drilling and return to camp. As for us, We have no wish to come down and inspect the troops."

Thereupon Sun Tzu said: "The King is only fond of words, and cannot translate them into deeds."

After that, Ho Lu saw that Sun Tzu was one who knew how to handle an army, and finally appointed him general. In the west, he defeated the Ch`u State and forced his way into Ying, the capital; to the north he put fear into the States of Ch`i and Chin, and spread his fame abroad amongst the feudal princes. And Sun Tzu shared in the might of the King.

This anecdote should make it clear that any war with China will be far more savage than most people expect.

Unfortunately, Generational Dynamics predicts that such a war over Taiwan will occur with 100% certainty. It may begin this year or next year or after, but it's likely to occur sooner rather than later. (20-Apr-06) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 20-Apr-06 An eerie similarity: Chinese President Hu Jintao and Donald Rumsfeld

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 20-Apr-06
An eerie similarity: Chinese President Hu Jintao and Donald Rumsfeld