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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 23-Apr-06
The far right anti-immigration British National Party suddenly surges in popularity

Web Log - April, 2006

The far right anti-immigration British National Party suddenly surges in popularity

Supporters say that Britain "seems like a foreign country," in a a poll sponsored by the Sunday Telegraph, ahead of the local elections to be held on May 4.

Poll shows sudden and dramatic new support for the British National Party <font size=-2>(Source: telegraph.co.uk)</font>

Poll shows sudden and dramatic new support for the British National Party (Source: telegraph.co.uk)

The poll confirms what had been considered to be a shocking and sensational claim by Margaret Hodges, UK's employment minister, and a close associate of Prime Minister Tony Blair:

"They can't get a home for their children, they see black and ethnic minority communities moving in and they are angry. When I knock on doors I say to people, 'are you tempted to vote BNP?' and many, many, many - eight out of 10 of the white families - say 'yes'. That's something we have never seen before, in all my years. Even when people voted BNP, they used to be ashamed to vote BNP. Now they are not." Mrs Hodge said the pace of ethnic change in her area had frightened people. "What has happened in Barking and Dagenham is the most rapid transformation of a community we have ever witnessed.

"Nowhere else has changed so fast. When I arrived in 1994, it was a predominantly white, working class area. Now, go through the middle of Barking and you could be in Camden or Brixton. That is the key thing that has created the environment the BNP has sought to exploit. It is a fear of change. It is gobsmacking change."

The poll firmed up these comments, and shows that 7% of the voters have already decided to vote for BNP and that 24% are considering it.

Among those people who are considering voting for the BNP, they give the following reasons (where each voter can check more than one reason):

Reason % of potential BNP voters

Britain nowadays seems almost like a foreign country 71

We should take tougher action against Muslims who want to destroy this country 67

None of the major parties is prepared to stand up for this country 64

The local council often gives black and Asian people preference over white people who have lived locally for many years. 61

I want to let those who run this country know that from now on they have to pay attention to people like me 56

Too many black and Asian people have been let into this country 48

All the major parties, including Labour, have deserted the working class 45

Reason	% of potential BNP voters
Britain nowadays seems almost like a foreign country	71
We should take tougher action against Muslims who want to destroy this country	67
None of the major parties is prepared to stand up for this country	64
The local council often gives black and Asian people preference over white people who have lived locally for many years.	61
I want to let those who run this country know that from now on they have to pay attention to people like me	56
Too many black and Asian people have been let into this country	48
All the major parties, including Labour, have deserted the working class	45

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this kind of sudden change in public opinion is upsetting, but unfortunately is completely expected. We're at a unique time in history, a "generational crisis" period, 60 years after the end of WW II, just as the people of last generation that actually lived through that war are almost completely gone (dead or retired). The kind of xenophobia we're seeing in Britain always occurs during generational crisis periods.

In fact, we're seeing it around the world.

Polls show that an equally sudden change of public opinion is occurring in Norway. Norwegian voters narrowly elected a left-center coalition government just last fall, but new polls shows that the anti-immigration Progress Party is now the most popular party.

Xenophobia in Russia is becoming an international news story. An ethnic Russian Nazi "skinhead" group, centered in St. Petersburg, has been growing in size for 2½ years. Assaults of people of other ethnic groups, especially Jews, Tajiks and Kazaks, are becoming increasingly common, and Russian police don't seem too concerned when it happens. Kazakhstan itself is increasingly the scene of tension between ethnic Russians and Kazaks.

The same thing is happening here in America.

We saw it a few weeks ago with the nationwide hostility to Muslims in the "Dubai Port" deal.

Possibly more important, take another look at the table above listing the reasons why voters are supporting the BNP. Now imagine American voters giving the same reasons why they're concerned about Latino immigrants.

Polls have shown decreasing support for immigrants over the years:

Increasing Immigration Worries

Sept Dec Mar Immigrants today... 2000 2005 2006 ---------------------------------------------- ---- ---- ---- Are a burden because they take jobs, housing 38% 44% 52% Strengthen the US with their hard work/talents 50% 45% 41% Don't know 12% 11% 7% ---------------------------------------------- ---- ---- ---- 100% 100% 100% Source: Pew Research Center http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=274

The above table shows that the percentage of Americans that believe that immigrants "are a burden" has been increasing steadily in the last six years, while the number who believe that they "strengthen the US" has been going down.

More and more we're hearing Americans express increasing xenophobia. Here's an opinion piece of a type we see and hear more often these days:

I served my country in World War II for 31¼2 years, to protect America and keep America free. I don't think much of illegal immigration from a foreign country, waving and marching with foreign flags and shooting insults about America.

I don't welcome them in America. If they don't like it in America, they can start walking and go back where they belong in Mexico. U.S. taxpayers ain't your nursemaids. Hillary's, Kennedy's and McCain's plan for immigration is no good. First we must control our borders. Lou Dobbs would make a good president. Keep up the good work. God bless America.

Robert Gallagher, Willow Hill (PA)

Originally published April 22, 2006

The sentence, "Lou Dobbs would make a good president" refers to CNN TV journalist Lou Dobbs, who has made his Monday-Friday 6-7pm ET television show a daily harangue against illegal immigration. Dobbs appears to want to make himself a hero to the anti-immigration political movement.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, there is only one possible conclusion to all this. California had been part of Mexico prior to the Mexican-American war of the 1840s, and that war is going to have to be re-fought. The Mexican population of California is already so large that a war cannot be avoided.

Violence is increasing throughout Mexico anyway, and and the country is already headed for a civil war. The clash with Americans in the United States parallels the clash of Europeans with Muslims, and the increasing support for anti-immigration laws parallels the rise of the BNP in Britain. As we head for a new "clash of civilizations" world war, these will be new and and unwelcome components. (23-Apr-06) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 23-Apr-06 The far right anti-immigration British National Party suddenly surges in popularity

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 23-Apr-06
The far right anti-immigration British National Party suddenly surges in popularity