	Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

\| HOME \| WEB LOG \| COUNTRY WIKI \| COMMENT \| FORUM \| DOWNLOADS \| ABOUT \|

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 30-Apr-06
Immigration: Xenophobia and paranoia growing rapidly as "Great American Boycott" approaches

Web Log - April, 2006

Immigration: Xenophobia and paranoia growing rapidly as "Great American Boycott" approaches

In what appears to be a sea change in public attitude, similar to the sudden growth in popularity of the British National Party in the UK, a new Rasmussen poll finds that strict enforcement of immigration and border control laws is becoming a potent issue in the 2006 Congressional elections and the 2008 Presidential elections.

On the other side, immigrants are suddenly staying out of work and schools for fear of federal roundups and deportations.

This combination of xenophobia and paranoia is quickly beginning to dominate the immigration debate as we approach Monday's Great American Boycott, which calls on immigrants and immigration supporters to skip work and school and take part in demonstrations. Organizers are hoping for huge turnouts in Los Angeles and in cities across the country.

Immigration has not been an important issue until recently, but in the last few months we've seen it become almost the dominant feature of the American political debate. And now poll results are highlighting its importance in various ways:

57% of Americans favor building a barrier along the Mexican border.

Only 26% of Americans have a favorable opinion of those who have marched and protested for immigrant rights, while 54% have an unfavorable view.

40% of Americans favor "forcibly" requiring all 11 million illegal immigrants to leave the United States.

For the 2008 Presidential election, a generic Democrat wins 44%-32% over a Republican. But when respondents were asked how they would vote if "a third party candidate ran in 2008 and promised to build a barrier along the Mexican border and make enforcement of immigration law his top priority," then the vote became Democrat 31%, third party candidate 30%, and Republican 21%.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, it's not surprising that this swing in publc opinion is happening in both Britain and the U.S. at almost exactly the same time. That's because this kind of xenophobia is typical of any society in a "generational crisis" period, and World War II ended at almost exactly the same time for Britain and the U.S. As we pointed out last week in the discussion of the British National Party, the same thing is happening as well in other countries that fought in WW II.

Many people appear to believe that these sudden changes in attitudes among American and British voters are temporary, and that once a few political issues are settled, then attitudes will revert back.

But that isn't how it works. What we're actually seeing is the early days of a growing change in public opinion. Instead of reverting, positions will continue to harden, perhaps rather quickly, and the only way to resolve the issues will be war.

It would be helpful to have similar opinion polls within the immigrant community, but even without polls it's clear that opinions are also hardening on the immigrant side -- as can be seen simply from the fact that the crowds at pro-immigrant demonstrations have been growing.

We can also see that immigrants are becoming more fearful of federal raids of workplaces and forced deportation. So increasing American xenophobia is being complemented by increasing immigrant paranoia.

Hispanics are also much more willing than before to be confrontational. This is clear from the confrontational nature of Monday's planned boycott -- where supporters are being encouraged to shut down businesses by staying out of work.

One novel development is the release of "Nuestro Himno" (Our Anthem), the "Star-Spangled Banner" in Spanish. This has brought a sharp response from the President: "I think the national anthem ought to be sung in English. People who want to be a citizen of this country ought to learn English, and they ought to learn to sing the national anthem in English."

If the Spanish version had been a true translation, there probably wouldn't be so much outrage. Instead, the composers changed the song substantially.

I've always loved the Star-Spangled Banner, especially its visual imagery. Francis Scott Key wrote the song as he was being held as a prisoner of war during an overnight battle. He knew that if the Americans lost the battle, then the American flag would be taken down. Hence the words: "And the rockets red glare, the bombs bursting in air, gave proof through the night that our flag was still there." However, this visual imagery has been removed, as has the phrase, "Home of the brave."

The Star-Spangled Banner is kind of a sacred song, and the translation changes it from a war song to some kind of brotherly love song. Many people (including me) consider this to be inappropriate.

If the Spanish version were a straight translation, and if immigration supporters sang that straight translation version as they marched and demonstrated that they're Americans too, then this might have actually improved relations with immigrants. Instead, they turned this sacred song into a cheap political stunt, and that's not going to help.

Adam Kidron, the producer of "Nuestro Himno," says that he thinks that the effort is " really cool to do something that was artful, emotional and, to some extent, patriotic."

Obviously it isn't being accepted that way by Americans, and that's how things work during "generational crisis" periods. During the 1960s, when America was in a generational awakening era, and even as late as the 1990s, "Nuestro Himno" might indeed have won a popular political following as a "multicultural" tool. But multiculturalism always disappears during generational crisis periods, in every country and at every time in history, because an individual at that time becomes concerned about the welfare of himself and his family, and about the viability of his country and its way of life, and these factors have higher priorities than multiculturalism.

One more point: A reader has sent me an e-mail message discussing the situation and expressing the belief that poor blacks will join with the Latinos, and will fight with the Mexicans rather than with the Americans. There will, in fact, some support for the boycott from the black community. I guess this point is arguable, but I see very little chance of a lasting coalition between blacks and Mexicans, since blacks have no connection to Mexico, and Mexicans have no real use for blacks.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the increasing xenophobia shows that we're headed for war between America and Mexico. Violence is increasing throughout Mexico anyway, and and the country is already headed for a civil war between the descendants of the indigenous people (Aztecs, Mayans, Commancheros) and the descendants of the Spanish conquerors. Within the United States, the immigration issue will become increasingly polarizing, just as the rise of the British National Party will be increasingly polarizing in Britain. All of these conflicts will eventually become parts of the "clash of civilizations" world war. (30-Apr-06) Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

Web Log Pages

Current Web Log

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 30-Apr-06 Immigration: Xenophobia and paranoia growing rapidly as "Great American Boycott" approaches

Web Log Pages

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 30-Apr-06
Immigration: Xenophobia and paranoia growing rapidly as "Great American Boycott" approaches