	Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 4-May-06
Mainstream media suddenly notices that European governments are paralyzed

Web Log - May, 2006

Mainstream media suddenly notices that European governments are paralyzed

Saying that the recent Italian election means there's "a crisis of the democratic model," an an article in CS Monitor points out that one European country after another is going through governmental turmoil, similar to America's 2000 Presidential election, which wasn't decided for weeks.

"People are disillusioned with politics, disappointed in whichever government they've got, and generally disenchanted with democracy," says one analyst, commenting on European politics:

Last month Romano Prodi won the election as Italian premier by putting together a nine-party alliance that won by a mere 25,000 votes out of 38 million cast. The election was in doubt until this week when the losing candidate, former premier Silvio Berlusconi, finally conceded after five weeks.

Late last year, Angela Merkel lost a close election for German Chancellor only by forming alliances with political enemies and abandoning her campaign promises for major economic reforms to bring down Germany's double-digit unemployment rate.

Last month, French President Jacques Chirac caved in to street protests and withdrew plans for economic reforms to bring down France's double-digit unemployment rate.

British Prime Minister Tony Blair has been forced to back off on plans to reform education and health care.

One political analyst says that European voters have no clear vision to inspire them. "People don't ask themselves who they are for, but who they are least against. It is democratic confusion, and loss of morale, which is very important."

An article in Wednesday's Wall Street Journal focuses on Angela Merkel, but makes the same point governments throughout Europe: "The story of Ms. Merkel, who is meeting with President Bush in Washington this evening, reflects Europe's economic quagmire. Challenged by low-cost labor abroad, Western Europe desperately needs to become more competitive to escape from a trap of low economic growth and high unemployment. Most business leaders and economists agree that strong moves are needed to overhaul inflexible labor codes and trim the costly social safety net. What's missing are strong leaders to carry them out."

Regular readers of this web site know that this is a point that I've been making for a long time now. One country after another is becoming paralyzed, and unable to accomplish anything.

The reason is generational. The people who fought in World War II almost literally reconstructed the world, accomplishing huge things -- setting up country boundaries, deciding world monetary, trade and commerce policies, making plans to make sure everyone is fed, constructing world health policies, and even setting up the United Nations to make sure that nothing like WW II ever happens to their children or grandchildren.

Even after WW II, the people who fought and grew up during WW II continued to look after the world through the institutions that they had set up at that time.

But as the decades went by, those generations disappeared in every country until finally, today, there are few of them left, and almost none of them left in leadership positions. The generations that follow haven't experienced the the enormous accomplishments of WW II, and they don't know how to carry those accomplishments forward. The Baby Boomer generation can't do anything but argue, and the Generation Xers are full of energy but can't do anything but get angry.

The kids in the young Millennial generation (Generation Y) don't know what to do either, but they want most of all to see their Xer and Boomer parents to stop being so angry and frustrated. It's these kids that will now set the direction for the world. They won't do it based on the experience of their grandparents who were around during WW II, because they don't know or understand anything of that experience.

Instead, as kids, they'll settle on something in the same way they settle on a fashion item or a rock star. And each country's leaders will have no choice but to follow, or be voted out of office. And in one country or another, that path will be to war, ahd that will create the chain reaction.

There is probably no more dramatic example of this in the world today than the Palestinians. Yasser Arafat and Ariel Sharon lived through the genocidal Arab-Jewish wars of the 1940s, and as long as they were alive, both the Palestinians and Israelis had strong leadership. But as I predicted when the Mideast roadmap was published in 2003, the Mideast has been descending into chaos ever since, and will continue to do so until there's a new genocidal war.

Why? One reason is that the median age in the Gaza strip is 15.6. The Palestinian people are being led by children. That's why, for example, it's IMPOSSIBLE for Hamas to recognize Israel. If Hamas's leaders did so, the Gaza children would through Hamas out in a minute.

But the fact that the Palestinian situation is the most dramatic doesn't mean it's unique. The reason that all the European countries are paralyzed, and America is paralyzed, and Israel is paralyzed, and even China is paralyzed is because the children haven't made up their minds yet. But when they do, in most cases we won't like the result.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this is all leading to a new world war, a "clash of civilizations" world war. At some point the kids in one country will decide it's time to go to war. Their parents and grandparents will follow, the kids in other countries will decide to get revenge, and it will be on.

This might start next week, next month or next year, but it will happen with 100% certainty.

So it's nice that the mainstream media is suddenly discovering that these governments are becoming paralyzed. As I've said many times, journalists, politicians and analysts are incapable of seeing even the most elementary and obvious generational explanations of events, and in this case the generational explanations are pretty subtle. It's a shame, because if these people were only able to dig a bit deeper, then they might put together an even more accurate picture of what's going on in the world. (4-May-06) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 4-May-06 Mainstream media suddenly notices that European governments are paralyzed

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 4-May-06
Mainstream media suddenly notices that European governments are paralyzed