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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 14-May-06
H5N1 bird flu appears to be spreading very slowly in families in Indonesia

Web Log - May, 2006

H5N1 bird flu appears to be spreading very slowly in families in Indonesia

Although human to human transmission, if confirmed, is still very inefficient, the situation in Indonesia indicates that the virus has taken an additional mutation step on the road to full-fledged efficient human to human transmission. If the virus continues to mutate in the same direction, the situation would quickly expand into a full-fledged worldwide bird flu pandemic. This could happen next week, next year, or after that - there's no way to predict.

What's causing concern among Indonesian and World Health Organization officials is a large familial "cluster" of bird flu cases. After attending a recent family gathering, eight family members living on Sumatra island fell ill, and six have died. The other two are still alive, and are hospitalized.

There have been smaller 2-3 person clusters in the past, so this is a much larger cluster than has been seen so far.

With smaller clusters, it's not always possible to determine whether human to human transmission has occurred. For example, if three family members all get bird flu, then it's possible that they all acquired the virus from the same animal source, say, an infected chicken living in the house or back yard.

But in this case, where the cluster size is eight, it's almost impossible for all eight to have contracted the disease from the same source. It's much more likely that one person got the disease from an animal and got sick -- this would be called the "index case" of the cluster -- and that the other seven contracted the disease from the index case through personal contact.

The timing of the infections also raises the likelihood that human transmission is involved, according to analysis on Henry Niman's Recombinomics web site. The first fatality was on May 4, followed by deaths on May 9, 10, two deaths on May 12, and one on May 13.

If all the deaths had occurred at the same time, that would indicate that they probably all contracted the disease at the same time, from the same animal source.

But since the second and third deaths occurred 5 days after the first one, it's most likely that these two people contracted their cases from the first patient, the index case, since it takes about five days after contracting the disease to show symptoms.

As I said above, this does not mean we're facing a human pandemic tomorrow. But it does mean it's possible, since one more step along that path has been taken.

A human pandemic could begin at any time -- next week, next month, next year, or after that.

As I've said before, you and your family should prepare immediately for a possible pandemic. If human to human transmission became public next week on Monday, then by Tuesday all the shelves in grocery stores would be bare. If you stock up on food now, then you'll be sure to have what you need. Even if you think that you can beat the crowds to the grocery store, you should still stock up in advance. If you get your canned food after the panic begins, then you're depriving somebody else of food. But if you stock up in advance, then the shelves will be restocked, and you won't deprive someone else of food.

I once again strongly urge my readers to prepare for an H5N1 pandemic or for any kind of emergency (think of hurricane Katrina) by stocking up on food and water and currency and batteries for the entire household to live on for 2-3 months. This may cost a thousand dollars per person, but it's not wasted money since you can always eat the food later if no emergency occurs. Get canned or dried food that can last a long time in storage, and get a large container for storing water. Keep in mind that stored water becomes impure with time, so you'll also need some purifying tablets or bleach to kill bacteria in the water when the time comes. Finally, get whatever medicines you'll need to take care of yourself and your family for a long period of time. (14-May-06) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 14-May-06 H5N1 bird flu appears to be spreading very slowly in families in Indonesia

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 14-May-06
H5N1 bird flu appears to be spreading very slowly in families in Indonesia