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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 11-Jun-06
Hamas reopens missile strikes into Israel after beach picknickers are killed

Web Log - June, 2006

Hamas reopens missile strikes into Israel after beach picknickers are killed

Abbas announces a July 26 referendum, bitterly opposed by Hamas, on recognizing Israel's existence.

A major rise in tensions was expected soon anyway. A report by the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF), to be released next month, says that Israel is headed toward a major, violent war with the Palestinians.

This assessment follows a series of interviews by World Net Daily with leaders of major Palestinian terror organizations, saying that they're ready to launch a 'third intifida', a violent attack on Israel. (The first intifida, or "uprising," occurred from 1987-93 and the second went from 2000 to 2004.) The third intifada will be directed against the security fence, will make increased use of suicide bombers, and will use increasingly accurate armed missiles against Jewish communities.

"The new intifada is only a question of time and this will be the hardest and the most dangerous one," said Abu Nasser, a senior leader of Al-Aqsa Brigades. "It's just about timing until the order to blow up a new wave of attacks will be given."

Hamas, Al-Aqsa and other terrorist groups agreed to an Egyptian-brokered ceasefire with Israel 16 months ago.

But two groups, the Popular Resistance Committee and Islamic Jihad, never agreed to the ceasefire, and so violence has continued all along. On the Palestinian side, this has mostly consisted of the firing of Qassam missiles from Gaza into Israel, but these missiles have rarely done much damage because they lack a guidance system. On the Israeli side, the violence consisted mostly of shelling suspected Qassam sites.

On Friday, one of Israel's shells landed on a Gaza beach, killing ten people, including a family with three children. One girl survived because she had been swimming in the sea when the shell landed. Highly compelling video of this screaming girl is being widely shown on television.

This has outraged the Palestinians, and led Hamas to call off the ceasefire.

Hamas immediately began cross-border rocket and mortar attacks on Saturday. Israeli Defense Minister Peretz then announced that it would target attacks against Hamas leaders.

Also on Saturday, President Mahmous Abbas condemned the Israeling shelling of the Gaza beach, calling it a "massacre," but at the same time he set July 26 as the date of the referendum on the "prisoners’ document." This referendum is bitterly opposed by Hamas because, as I described last week, a side effect of accepting the Prisoners' document would be recognizing Israel.

I've heard some news reports describe the referendum as the "current hope for peace" and a way "to continue he peace process." Actually, there is no peace process, and the referendum is more likely to increase tensions leading to civil war among the Palestinians.

Mideast, showing Israel/Palestine, Muslim countries, and Orthodox Christian countries

Mideast, showing Israel/Palestine, Muslim countries, and Orthodox Christian countries

I normally don't go into this much detail about political goings on, but I want to show how almost every political detail is heading the region for war. It's like that old joke, "If he didn't have bad luck, he wouldn't have any luck at all."

This is to illustrate again the concept of "chaotic attractor," in the sense of Chaos Theory. Political events are random, but in a generational crisis period, political events are "attracted" to war. The underlying cause, in this case, is a young generation of Palestinians in Gaza where the median age for the entire population is 15.6.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the Mideast is entering a "generational crisis" era, since 57 years have passed since the end of the genocidal crisis war between the Arabs and Jews triggered by the 1948 partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel.

When the Mideast "Roadmap to Peace" was put forward in May 2003, I predicted that the Roadmap would / could never succeed, and that the Mideast would move closer and closer to war as soon as Yasser Arafat and Ariel Sharon were out of the picture. That appears to be exactly what's happening, as the region moves closer each day to re-fighting the genocidal war of the 1940s, a war that will engulf the entire region. (11-Jun-06) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 11-Jun-06 Hamas reopens missile strikes into Israel after beach picknickers are killed

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 11-Jun-06
Hamas reopens missile strikes into Israel after beach picknickers are killed