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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 14-Jun-06
US warns North Korea on "countermeasures" over missile test

Web Log - June, 2006

US warns North Korea on "countermeasures" over missile test

North Korea appears to be making preparations for a long-range missile test. The missile being tested would presumably be capable of carrying a nuclear weapon to the US mainland.

Lee Tae Sik, South Korea's ambassador to Washington, said that the situation was "very worrisome."

Ban Ki Moon, South Korea's foreign minister, said his ministry "was in discussions with related departments on possible measures" against a North Korean test.

Alexander Vershbow, American's amabassador to South Korea, said that a missile test "would be viewed as a very serious matter and we would have to take appropriate measures in response."

Vershbow didn't say what the "appropriate measures" would be. Presumably it would be something like saying, "Damn you, North Korea!" or something equally consequential.

It's worth taking a moment to step back and ask ourselves: What have been the accomplishments of international diplomacy in the last few years?

Let's list some items:

The U.S. and the United Nations have been trying for years to get North Korea to halt it's nuclear weapons program, with no success at all. (I said in 2003 that North and South Korea are headed for a certain reunification war, and that it would involve nuclear weapons.

The "Mideast Roadmap to Peace" has gone nowhere, and the Mideast's descent into war appears to be accelerating every day. (I predicted in 2003 that this would happen.)

Despite numerous speeches and lots of handwringing, the U.N. has done nothing to stop the genocide in Darfur, and now it's as bad as ever, spreading into Chad. ( (I predicted in 2004 that it was a crisis war, a force of nature that could not be stopped.)

Iran is going ahead with its nuclear program, despite international demands that it stop.

My point is that nothing has been done in one international crisis after another. Oh, there's been plenty of talk -- there's always a lot of that. But nobody is able to DO anything to prevent the worldwide rush to world war.

There's only real exception to that statement: No matter what you think of the Iraq war, the American decision to invade was the last time anyone was able to actually DO anything to draw the world back from world war (by preventing Iraq from developing or using weapons of mass destruction).

Since then, no one has been able to DO anything.

In fact, since then America is now as politically paralyzed as the rest of the world, and is no longer able to DO anything any more either.

That's the explanation for my joke above. Will America or anyone else DO anything if North Korea tests a missile? Or will there just be empty rhetoric? I expect the latter.

Actually, I was discussing this with a friend earlier today, and he mentioned an intriguing possibility: When Vershbow said that we would take "appropriate measures in response," he might have meant a military action to blow the missile out of the sky with American anti-missile technology of some kind.

This action would illustrate a different point: That as the world becomes politically and socially more and more paralyzed, the only options left are in the realm of military brinksmanship. North Korea will launch a missile, thinking that we can't do anything about it. We knock the missile out, thinking that they can't do anything about.

As military brinksmanship continues, the steps get more and more aggressive, until a miscalculation occurs and they spiral out of control into war.

That's certainly what's happening today in the Mideast, with the military brinksmanship increasing on a daily basis between the two major Palestinian factions, as well as between the Palestinians and Israelis.

Conflict risk level for next 6-12 months as of: 9-Feb-2006

W. Europe 1 Arab Israeli 3

Russia Caucasus 2 Kashmir 2

China 2 North Korea 2

Financial 3 Bird flu 3

Key: 1=green 1=Low risk 2=yellow 2=Med 3=red 3=High 4=black 4=Active

In my current "world risk level" graphic, I've placed North Korea at "Medium Risk" because I don't think that they're yet prepared to launch an attack on South Korea or Japan. I still think that's true, but the current situation with the missile test shows that a war could really begin at any time through miscalculation. Anyway, a Mideast war appears to be far more imminent than a war in Korea right now. (14-Jun-06) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 14-Jun-06 US warns North Korea on "countermeasures" over missile test

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 14-Jun-06
US warns North Korea on "countermeasures" over missile test