	Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 21-Jun-06
Tensions reaching the boiling point among Palestinians and Israelis

Web Log - June, 2006

Tensions reaching the boiling point among Palestinians and Israelis

So-called "pinpoint" Israeli missile strikes have killed several civilians, including children in the Gaza strip, as the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) attempts to kill terrorist leaders selectively with missiles.

This is increasingly infuriating the Palestinians, at a time when the tensions between the two major Palestinian government factions -- Mahmoud Abbas' Fatah and Hamas -- are also increasing enormously.

There's a growing sense that no one is in charge anymore, according to Robert Rosenberg's Ariga column. "And with tensions running so high -- between Hamas and Fateh, as well as Israel and the Palestinians -- each passing day without a deal carries the risk of an outbreak of internecine hostilities inside Gaza," says Rosenberg, "as well as escalation of Palestinian attacks on Israel iin retaliation for Israeli retaliations for those attacks."

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this increasingly unfortunate situation is exactly what was expected and has been frequently predicted on this web site. As predicted in May, 2003, when the "Mideast Roadmap to Peace" came out, not only did the "Roadmap" fail, but the Mideast is descending into increasing chaos on almost a daily basis. This has only accelerated since the death of Palestinian president Yasser Arafat and the incapacitation of Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon.

Recall that for many years, the West blamed Yasser Arafat for sabotaging any peace process and for encouraging Palestinian terrorism. This mantra was repeated over and over again by politicians, pundits and journalists, none of whom understood, or were capable of understanding, even the simplest, most elementary concepts of how generational changes work. This lack of understanding of simple generational theory explains why politicians, analysts and pundits of all political parties make so many stupid mistakes, and constantly get things wrong.

For some reason, which constantly escapes me, these politicians, analysts and pundits just can't seem to get their head around the concept that policy isn't being made by the dinosaur Palestinian and Israeli politicians whom everyone credits or blames when anything happens. Like in America, these politicians have to answer to their constituencies, and in the Mideast, these constituencies are increasingly young kids with little or memory of anything in Mideast politics but Palestinian terrorism and Israeli military strikes. In the most extreme case, the Gaza strip, the median age is 15.6, meaning that policy is being set by children who really couldn't care less about any of nuances of international politics that politicians, analysts and pundits seem to prattle on and on and on about endlessly.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the increasing chaos and lack of political control is what's expected. As I wrote about in March at length, the Palestinian government was already dysfunctional, and with the incapacitation of Sharon, Israel is also becoming increasingly dysfunctional. In simplest terms, this is because the complex political infrastructures that were set up by the generation of Heroes who fought in World War II are now old and creaky, encrusted with bureaucracy and so fragile that almost any crisis will shatter them. This is true of international organizations, like the United Nations, and it's also true of political organizations in every country that fought in WW II as a generational crisis war.

The level of threat and confrontation is growing around the world, but probably no more so than in the Mideast. The Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) when led by Yasser Arafat was able to maintain order among the Palestinians, but now it's crumbling into a pile of dust that would be a joke if it weren't so serious. And the Israeli parliamentary structure, once led by Liberal or Conservative war heroes like Yitzhak Rabin (1922-1995), Menachem Begin (1913-1992), or Ariel Sharon (1928-), is now being run by Ehud Olmert (1945-), who is a perfectly capable guy but with little understanding of the horrors of a crisis war, and by the abortive Kadima party, where Kadima means "forward," but might also mean "joke."

A new genocidal crisis war between Arabs and Jews cannot be avoided -- Generational Dynamics tells us that with 100% certainty, and you can see it with your own eyes as each day goes by. We can't prevent such a war, but we CAN prepare for it. And every day we sit around talking about a non-existent "peace" process, and every day we nurture "hopes" that the Palestinians and Israelis will fall in line, like at teenage boy "hoping" that the pretty girl across the room will come over and ask him out, is another wasted day that we could have spent preparing ourselves and our nation for the worst - which is what's coming, whether we like it or not. (21-Jun-06) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 21-Jun-06 Tensions reaching the boiling point among Palestinians and Israelis

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 21-Jun-06
Tensions reaching the boiling point among Palestinians and Israelis