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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 29-Jun-06
Israeli Air Force buzzes Syrian President's Palace as Israeli settlers are kidnapped

Web Log - June, 2006

Israeli Air Force buzzes Syrian President's Palace as Israeli settlers are kidnapped

As the level of brinksmanship increases, so does the risk of miscalculation.

Israeli tanks and soldiers pushed across the border into the southern Gaza Strip on Tuesday and Wednesday. According to the Israelis, their objective is to rescue the Israeli soldier hostage, Gilad Shalit, being held by Hamas militants.

Israeli air strikes destroyed bridges that provide access in and out of Gaza City, and also fired on a power station. According to the Israelis, the objective was to prevent movement of the hostage.

"We have no intention of recapturing the Gaza Strip. We have no intention of staying there," said Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert.

Palestinian militias kidnapped two Israeli settlers in the West Bank. Late reports are that they've been killed. No reason was given for the kidnappings.

Israeli jets made low passes over the summer home of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, and Syrian forces fired on the jets. Israelis say that much of the Hamas military leadership lives in Syria, and receives protection from Syria, and this is acknowledged by Hamas. According to the Syrians, Syria has played no part in the kidnapping of the soldier, and does not know where the hostage is being held.

The living situation is Gaza is getting increasingly worse. The power station had provided most of Gaza's electric power, and now many homes and businesses, including hospitals, are dark. Because of sharp security restrictions imposed by the Israelis, almost no travel is allowed into or out of Gaza, and the destruction of the two bridges limits travel within Gaza as well. On the bright side, the Israeli incursion has, so far, not killed or wounded any Palestinians.

On the Israeli side, a brief segment aired by CNN on Wednesday showed high approval by Israelis of the military incursion.

Another day has gone by, and each day that goes by makes the situation worse in the Mideast. The trend path is that we should expect full scale war before too much longer, although mediators from Egypt, Europe and America are trying their best to head this off.

Of all the events described above, there are two things to focus on if you want to understand the trend line:

Both Israelis and Palestinians are becoming increasingly angry at each other. Positions are hardening even more than before. New lines are being crossed all the time, with the approval of the respective sides. As this trend continues, all-out war between Arabs and Jews will not be far behind.

The involvement of Syria is particularly significant. A war between Palestinians and Jews is one thing, but if Syria is drawn in, then Iran and Egypt will also be drawn in. This would inevitably draw the United States in.

Conflict risk level for next 6-12 months as of: 9-Feb-2006

W. Europe 1 Arab Israeli 3

Russia Caucasus 2 Kashmir 2

China 2 North Korea 2

Financial 3 Bird flu 3

Key: 1=green 1=Low risk 2=yellow 2=Med 3=red 3=High 4=black 4=Active

Please note that I'm NOT saying that these two results can be avoided. Quite the contrary, this is the kind of thing that I predicted in May, 2003, when the "Mideast Roadmap to Peace" came out.

As each day brings new surprises and counter-surprises, the chances of miscalculation on either side could bring events to spiral out of control into full-scale war.

In 2004, I identified the six most dangerous regions in world, six regions of the world where a regional war was likely and where a regional war would lead to a world war. These regions are shown on the adjoining graphic. Using Generational Dynamics forecasting techniques, I computed the probability that a war would break out in one of these regions to be approximately 22% in 2005, and slightly higher in 2006.

At that time I didn't know which of the six regions would break into war first, and in fact considered major war in the Caucasus to be the most likely. But now it looks more and more that the Mideast will be first, and that war will be coming pretty soon. It's impossible to predict whether full scale war will break out next week, next month or next year, but it looks more and more that it will happen sooner rather than later. (29-Jun-06) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 29-Jun-06 Israeli Air Force buzzes Syrian President's Palace as Israeli settlers are kidnapped

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 29-Jun-06
Israeli Air Force buzzes Syrian President's Palace as Israeli settlers are kidnapped