Whose side will Germany be on in the "Clash of Civilizations" world war? - 4-Jul-06 - Generational Dynamics

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 4-Jul-06

Whose side will Germany be on in the "Clash of Civilizations" world war?

A reader of this web site offers an opinion.

People I talk to are almost always stupefied when I talk about a new West European war, the first since World War II. They act as if such things were as scarce as hen's teeth, even though there have been such wars as regularly as clockwork for millennia, and nobody so far has been able to point out a new Law of Nature that would keep such a war from happening again, now that we're coming close to the next "clockwork" cycle.

Defiant French President Jacques Chirac in June, 2005 <font size=-2>(Source: LeMonde)</font>

Defiant French President Jacques Chirac in June, 2005 (Source: LeMonde)

At this point, the question of who will be fighting whom is largely speculation. Based on history, we can reasonably assume that one of the three countries UK, France and Germany, will be at war with the other two. However, this assumption must be heavily qualified by the fact that a clash on European soil between indigenous Europeans and Muslims from Turkey and North Africa is shaping up to be a certainty.

However, the heavy recriminations between Britain and France in 2003 in the U.N. Security Council over the Iraq war, and then again in June, 2005, over the European Union budget, makes it pretty clear that the wars that have occurred regularly since 1066 between England and France will be repeated. (Ironically, as I'm writing this, I'm listening to the July 4 Boston Pops concert playing the 1812 Overture, with its intermingled strains of the French national anthem, La Marseillaise. How things can change in a mere 200 years.)

That leaves the question of whom Germany will side with. A web site reader offers the following opinion:

"Germany and Britain up until the First World War were allies. The German nations (Prussia, Hanover, Hesse specifically) either worked for Britain or supplied Royalty to Britain. The current ruling family of Britain is of German descent and so were Kings George I,II and III (Hanover). I would expect Germany to fight alongside Britain and the US in a future conflict."

Well, if this is true, then why did Germany fight Britain in World Wars I and II?

"Things changed between Germany and Britain after the 1880's or so. Once Germany was unified, they quickly became a rival to Britain economically. It was the economic rivalry as well as the web of political alliances that led to Britain and Germany fighting in WW I. Many of the British royalty changed their names during this time to hide their German heritage (Mountbatten's real family name is Battenberg). ... Hitler did not want to fight Britain and regarded them as "Aryans." He ended up doing so because of Britain's pledges to Poland. The two nations have historically been allies rather than enemies and given that we seem to be returning in some ways to old rivalries, it stands to reason that Britain and Germany would most likely be allied against France if they ever came to blows."

I'm not taking sides on this question until more facts emerge except to say, as I've mentioned once or twice in the past, that when I spent quite a bit of time in Europe in the 1970s, it was perfectly clear even then that the Germans liked Americans and the French hated Americans.

This seems a good time to mention that comments and questions and e-mail messages are welcome. (If you prefer, you can also post a message in the Objections to Generational Dynamics thread of the Fourth Turning forum.) So far I've been able to keep up with answering all of them, although when the load is too heavy it sometimes takes me a week or two. I know from the web logs that I have 1,000-2,000 regular readers out there. I don't know who you are, but I'm always happy to hear from you, if you don't mind the fact it may take me a day or a few days to answer.

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 4-Jul-06 Whose side will Germany be on in the "Clash of Civilizations" world war?

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 4-Jul-06
Whose side will Germany be on in the "Clash of Civilizations" world war?