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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 4-Jul-06
In an Independence Day surprise, North Korea launches multiple test missiles towards Japan

Web Log - July, 2006

In an Independence Day surprise, North Korea launches multiple test missiles towards Japan

Sticking its thumb in the eye of the United Nations and the United States, North Korea has launched not just one, not two, not three, not four, not just five, but SIX missiles. The test missiles were launched in the direction of Japan, but fell into the Sea of Japan between the two countries.

One of the six missiles was the long-range Taepodong-2 missile, but apparently it malfunctioned shortly after takeoff.

Since the launchings were apparently tests that posed no immediate danger to America or Japan, this might be similar to the little joke that President Kim Jong-il played on the world last September, when it first promised to end nuclear testing, and then said "ha, ha, we were just kidding" a few days later.

Nonetheless, this is the same kind of "screw you" tactic as was used by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad announced in April when he announced that Iran is going to enrich uranium. That particular announcement came after statements that Israel "should be wiped off the map." Both Kim and Ahmadinejad are adopting postures of complete contempt towards America, Europe and the West, including the United Nations.

All the silly chatter on television right now is whether the Bush administration offered the right collection of carrots and sticks, and whether the Clinton administration coddled the North Korea regime. You'd have to be a total moron to believe that North Korea's decision to continue or abandon an aggressive weapon system depends on the number of people sitting in on peace negotiations, or on whether Bush said the right "magic words" to Kim in the past, but that's what we're hearing on TV this evening.

But from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the Bush administration has little or no ability to affect either situation. North Korean President Kim Jong-il and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad are both saying the same thing: "We're going to do what we want, and there's nothing you can do about it."

Actually, it was just a couple of weeks ago that the United States warned North Korea of "countermeasures," if the missile tests were continued.

I guess now we get to see what those "countermeasures" are, if any.

If there are any military countermeasures (such as bombing a Korean missile launcher), then China will be angered.

If the "countermeasures" are just words, or complaining to the useless United Nations Security Council, or if there are no countermeasures at all, then the Americans will look like idiots, and the Japanese will be scared to death.

Actually, it's pretty certain that the Japanese, who are just waking up on Wednesday morning, are going to be pretty frightened anyway.

The Japanese were freaked out in 1988 when North Korea launched a missile that overflew Japan and landed in the Pacific Ocean.

Japan's relations with the Koreans and Chinese have been deteriorating sharply in the last two years. This incident is sure to raise the level of anger.

Japan has territorial disputes on all sides, with Korea, China and Russia, and has been increasing its military capabilities, preparing to defend its territory. In addition, Japan and America have been speeding up plans to deploy American Patriot missiles on Japanese soil, to counter the North Korean threat.

On the other hand, Iran, North Korea and China have been developing closer diplomatic relationships in recent months, and there have been uncomfirmed reports that Iran is purchasing nuclear technology from North Korea. Furthermore, since China gives a great deal of food and energy aid to North Korea, it seems safe to assume that China could have prevented the multi-missile launch, but chose not to.

Conflict risk level for next 6-12 months as of: 9-Feb-2006

W. Europe 1 Arab Israeli 3

Russia Caucasus 2 Kashmir 2

China 2 North Korea 2

Financial 3 Bird flu 3

Key: 1=green 1=Low risk 2=yellow 2=Med 3=red 3=High 4=black 4=Active

Thus, as I mentioned in passing a couple of weeks ago, it appears that China, Iran, Pakistan and North Korea are forming a new "axis," corresponding to the Germany-Italy-Japan axis of World War II. This axis, headed by China, would be opposed to the new allies -- Japan, Australia, India, Russia, UK, led by America.

At the present time, I'm still leaving China and North Korea at level 2, medium risk, on my little "Conflict Risk" graphic, because I don't yet hear the drums of war from either of those countries, and I don't see this situation spiraling out of control the way the situation in Gaza is. But that could change any day, if this kind of confrontation continues. (4-Jul-06) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 4-Jul-06 In an Independence Day surprise, North Korea launches multiple test missiles towards Japan

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 4-Jul-06
In an Independence Day surprise, North Korea launches multiple test missiles towards Japan