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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 5-Jul-06
Olmert promises retaliation after missile lands in Israeli city

Web Log - July, 2006

Olmert promises retaliation after missile lands in Israeli city

Another day, another escalation.

While the world's attention is focused on test missiles fired by North Korea (and there were SEVEN of them, not just six), an escalating situation is occurring in the Mideast, thanks to a REAL missile.

The level of panic among Israelis was turned up a few notches on Tuesday, when a rocket from Gaza hit Israeli city of Ashkelon. The rocket, evidently fired by Hamas' military wing, uses slightly more advanced technology than previous rockets, and so reached farther into Israeli territory. It landed near a school, but no one was hurt. Even so, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert called the rocket attack a "major escalation."

An editorial in the Israeli newspaper Ha'aretz says that the missile "constitutes an unequivocal invitation by Hamas to war."

Israeli diplomatic sources are said to be planning "a very harsh response" to the incident.

Uri Ariel, a conservative member of the Knesset (Israeli parliament) called on Prime Minister Ehud Olmert to "stop the games and begin taking serious action" to stop the rocket attacks.

After a Wednesday morning meeting with his security cabinet, Prime Minister Olmert has ordered the army to expand its offensive against Hamas.

According to a statement from Olmert's office, "Given the abduction and continued ballistic salvoes, including the (rocket) launched at Ashkelon, the rules of the game in dealing with the Palestinian Authority and Hamas must be changed." The statement said that strikes against Hamas Islamists in Gaza and the West Bank will focus on "institutions and infrastructure facilitating terrorism".

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From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the Mideast is in a "generational crisis" period and is heading, with 100% certainty, to a new major genocidal war between Arabs and Jews, 57 years (almost three generations) after the end of the the major war that was fought in the late 1940s, following the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel.

This is to illustrate again the concept of "chaotic attractor," in the sense of Chaos Theory. Political events are random, but in a generational crisis period, political events are "attracted" to war. This has been lucidly illustrated in the Mideast, where hardly a day has gone by in the last 16 months where political events haven't measureably brought the region closer and closer to war. As I predicted in May, 2003, when the "Mideast Roadmap to Peace" came out, the disappearance of Yasser Arafat and Ariel Sharon from the scene has removed the last major generational inhibitions to full-scale war. (5-Jul-06) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 5-Jul-06 Olmert promises retaliation after missile lands in Israeli city

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 5-Jul-06
Olmert promises retaliation after missile lands in Israeli city