Shamil Basayev is dead - 11-Jul-06 - Generational Dynamics

The Chechen terrorist responsible for the Beslan school massacre in September 2004, in which 330 hostages, half of them children, died is now dead himself, a victim of a huge explosion. There is evidence that he died in the midst of preparing for a new terrorist attack to coincide with this week's G-8 summit in St. Petersburg. In another terrorist attack, Basayev was responsible for the downing of two passenger planes in flight from Moscow by "black widows," women carrying bombs.

Shamil Basayev

Shamil Basayev is dead: The Chechen terrorist responsible for the Beslan school massacre... (11-Jul-06)

Shamil Basayev gains in stature and power as pan-Caucasus terror leader: He claims credit for leading Nalchik attack, but blames a traitor for leaking advance information.... (19-Oct-05)

Chechnya terrorists attack Russian town (Nalchik) massively: Coordinated attack by 300 Chechen gunmen raises Caucusus violence to new level.... (14-Oct-05)

Russia is barring ABC News reporters from working in Russia: Still infuriated over ABC Nightline's airing of interview with Chechen terrorist warlord Shamil Basayev,... (2-Aug-05)

Russia infuriated over ABC "Nightline" interview of Shamil Basayev: "How many more bombs must hit New York before the American media learns... (29-Jul-05)

Passenger train bombed in Dagestan, following Putin's visit: This is the 70'th terrorist attach this year in Dagestan,... (25-Jul-05)

Massive bomb blasts in Egypt vacation resort: This follows new blasts in London and Chechnya.... (23-Jul-05)

Chechnya: Russian killing of rebel leader returns world's focus back to Caucasus: Terrorist Shamil Basayev may gain, as rebels select an obscure Islamic cleric... (11-Mar-05)

Russia ejects international patrols from Russia-Georgia border: As an act of defiance, Russia has vetoed continuation of an international peacekeeping force... (12-Jan-05)

Chechen terrorist Shamil Basayev now has the same stature as Osama bin Laden: Putin's ploy of blaming "international terrorists" for the Beslan terrorism was demolished... (19-Sep-04)

Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be calling for revenge: Putin said that Russian "weakness in the face of danger" has caused Russia to be "beaten up" in the face of "a total and full-blown war."... (4-Sept-04)

In June 1995, Basayev-led terrorists entered Budyonnovsk, a small town in southern Russia, where they captured a large hospital and took over 1,800 people hostage. In the end, more than 100 hostages were killed, and Basayev and his men were allowed to retreat safely back to Chechnya, using hostages as human shields.

In an ABC News interview with Basayev conducted soon after the Beslan massacre, Basayev said that there would be many more attacks similar to Beslan. “It’s not the children [of Beslan] who are responsible,” Basayev said. “Responsibility is with the whole Russian nation... If the war doesn’t come to each of them individually, it will never stop in Chechnya.” Asked if a Beslan-type attack could occur again, Basayev said: “Of course ... As long as the genocide of the Chechen nation continues, as long as this mess continues, anything can happen.”

The fact that ABC News gave air time to such a bloody, ruthless terrorist may be surprising, but it seems to be typical of today's arrogant Boomer-led media, who seem to know little of what's going on in the world. The interview absolutely infuriated Putin and the Russian people, and Russia barred ABC News reporters from Russia. I don't know whether the interdiction is still in effect today.

Russian President Vladimir Putin was 'jubilant' at the news. "For the bandits, this is just retribution for our children in Beslan … and for all the terrorist attacks they carried out in Moscow and other regions of Russia," he said.

Unfortunately, many Russian commentators are in a state of denial. "I think Russia's latest Caucasian war is over," says political commentator Pyotr Romanov, "and the killing of warlord Shamil Basayev is yet another serious argument in favor of this opinion. Individuals have always played a particularly important role in the Caucasus. Now that Basayev is dead, there is no one else in the region to hate Russia and despise life, his own and the lives of others, as much as he did."

Well, that's surely a vain hope. The Causasus is a region of major, repeated crisis wars between Orthodox Russians and Muslims for many centuries, and a new crisis war is overdue. The death of Basayev will no more stop the terrorist attacks or prevent a war in the Caucasus than the death of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi stopped the terrorist acts in Iraq or prevented a war in the Mideast.

Conflict risk level for next 6-12 months as of: 9-Feb-2006

W. Europe

Arab Israeli

Russia Caucasus

Kashmir

China

North Korea

Financial

Bird flu

Key:

1=Low risk 2=yellow

2=Med

3=High 4=black

4=Active

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, it's impossible to predict the effect of the death of as powerful a figure as Basayev. His death may trigger a power struggle that ends up launching a major crisis war, or things may settle down for a while. The one thing that's certain is that a new major crisis war in the Caucasus in the near future cannot be avoided. (11-Jul-06) Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 11-Jul-06
Shamil Basayev is dead

Web Log Pages

	Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

\| HOME \| WEB LOG \| COUNTRY WIKI \| COMMENT \| FORUM \| DOWNLOADS \| ABOUT \|

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 11-Jul-06 Shamil Basayev is dead

Web Log Pages

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 11-Jul-06
Shamil Basayev is dead