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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 13-Jul-06
July 11 coordinated railway bombings on Mumbai (Bombay) infuriate people of India

Web Log - July, 2006

July 11 coordinated railway bombings on Mumbai (Bombay) infuriate people of India

Indians wonder: Should Pakistan be blamed?

Approximate locations of the seven Mumbai train attacks on 7/11. (Source: BBC)

Approximate locations of the seven Mumbai train attacks on 7/11. (Source: BBC)

On Tuesday, July 11, seven bombs exploded in Mumbai railway stations across the city, within a few minutes of each other. It's believed that they were detonated by timers. Over 200 people have died, with over 700 injuries.

India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Kashmir. Mumbai (Bombay) is a large city on the Arabian Sea coast. (Source: Peter N. Stearns)

India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Kashmir. Mumbai (Bombay) is a large city on the Arabian Sea coast. (Source: Peter N. Stearns)

Although the perpetrators have not been identified, two Kashmir separatist groups (Lashkar-e-Taiba or Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) and Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM)) are considered the most likely. These two groups use this kind of terror to attempt to further their cause of removing Indian control of the provinces of Kashmir or Jammu. In fact, the July 7, 2006, London subway bombers were also associated with Kashmir separatist movements.

India's prime minister, Manmohan Singh on 7/11. (Source: CNN)

India's prime minister, Manmohan Singh on 7/11. (Source: CNN)

"No one can make India kneel," said India's prime minister, Manmohan Singh. "No one can come in the path of our progress. We will win this war against terror. Nothing will break our resolve."

Beyond the fact of the bombings themselves, the major issue is the effect of the bombings on relations between India and Pakistan.

Generational Dynamics has been predicting for some time that India and Pakistan were headed for certain war over the disputed Kashmir region, but the two countries have maintained friendly relations because of a remarkable détente that Pakistan's President Pervez Musharraf and India's Prime Minister Manmohan Singh have engineered over the last few years.

The détente survived a major terrorist attack in March of this year, and will probably survive this event as well.

However, both Pakistan and India have taken shots at each other over the bombings. Many of India's people are blaming Pakistani Muslims for harboring terrorist groups, and Pakistan's Foreign Minister Khurshid Mahmud Kasuri hinted that the bombings were caused by India's intransigence in Kashmir.

However, mainstream media reporters are beginning to notice that something is happening in the world.

Speaking to another anchor, CNN's Wolf Blitzer said, "Are you getting the sense that with the situation in North Korea, Iraq, Iran, India, Israel, Lebanon, that the world is falling apart?"

A number of reporters on CNN and Fox on Wednesday evening remarked about the speed with which the situation in the Mideast has deteriorated. "I've seen things get bad here, but never this bad so quickly," said one person reporting from Gaza.

But that's just because they haven't been noticing. As I've pointed out many, many times, hardly a day has gone by in many months that the situation in Gaza hasn't gotten measureably worse than it was the day before.

And as I pointed out a few weeks ago, the descent to war started out fairly slowly following Yasser Arafat's death, but has been accelerating ever since. It's like a huge tsunami that everyone has ignored until it's too late to run for higher ground.

Conflict risk level for next 6-12 months as of: 9-Feb-2006

W. Europe 1 Arab Israeli 3

Russia Caucasus 2 Kashmir 2

China 2 North Korea 2

Financial 3 Bird flu 3

Key: 1=green 1=Low risk 2=yellow 2=Med 3=red 3=High 4=black 4=Active

The same thing is going to happen in all the other regions in my little conflict risk graphic. The North Korean missile crisis is speeding up militarization plans in Japan, and presumably in China as well. And the Mumbai bombings are almost certain to increase the historic tension between Hindus and Muslims.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the world is headed for a new "Clash of Civilizations" world war, 60 years after the end of World War II, just as all the people who lived through World War II are all disappearing (retiring and dying), all at once. With the bombings in Mumbai, and with events moving more and more quickly in the Mideast, it looks more and more that the world will be a very different place within a few more months. (13-Jul-06) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 13-Jul-06 July 11 coordinated railway bombings on Mumbai (Bombay) infuriate people of India

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 13-Jul-06
July 11 coordinated railway bombings on Mumbai (Bombay) infuriate people of India