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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 15-Jul-06
Israel and Hizbollah declare war

Web Log - July, 2006

Israel and Hizbollah declare war

However, the Palestinians are staying out of it so far

I heard someone on the news today debating whether the Mideast is at war, with one person claiming that this isn't a real war yet.

That's a semantic argument, but one thing's for sure on the ground: We don't have any large armies fighting each other yet.

We have the Israelis, led by Ehud Olmert, bombing Lebanese infrastructure, destroying roads and bridges, to prevent Hizbollah from importing more weapons from Iran.

And we have Hizbollah, led by Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, launching hundreds and perhaps thousands of missiles on Israeli cities.

And finally, we have Nasrallah's patrons, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who supply Hizbollah with the thousands of missiles that are now being aimed at Israeli cities.

According to a report by Chinese news agency Xinhua, al-Assad and Ahmadinejad have been discussing the situation on the phone. Ahmadinejad has repeatedly and very vocally stated that he wants Israel "wiped off the map."

But there's a big piece missing from all this -- a war between PEOPLE, as opposed to a war between POLITICIANS.

This distinction is not always clear, but it's crucially important from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, because the worst wars, the crisis wars, come from the people, while non-crisis wars come from the politicians.

In particular, I'm not hearing rage and fury from the Israeli people or the Palestinian people. The Israelis are fleeing from cities near the Lebanese border, to avoid Hizbollah's missiles. And the Palestinians in Gaza are dealing with crowded, electricity-free world with difficulty. But we don't hear the Israelis say, "Kill the Palestinians," and we don't hear the Palestinians say, "Kill the Israelis."

As I described at length a couple of days ago, Lebanon, Syria and Iran had their last crisis wars in the 1980s. Only one generation has passed since then, so they're far from ready for a new crisis war, unless it's forced on them. You won't see large armies of Iranians, Syrians or Lebanese any time soon.

But for the Palestinians and Israelis, the last crisis war was the genocidal crisis war between Arabs and Jews in 1948-49, triggered by the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel.

This is a generational crisis era for Arabs and Jews, and it would just take a "sufficient outrage" to launch either side into a crisis war. What's a "sufficient outrage"? It could be any chaotic event, but an example would be that one side kills several hundred civilians on the other side and says that they deserved to die.

Meanwhile, poor Lebanon is being battered and bashed by all sides. In a very emotional speech just carried live (through a translator) on CNN, Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora said that "Lebanon is a disaster zone," and he asked for international help for his country and to rescue his people. He said that the Lebanese people are "pained, angry, determined and patient," and that they will survive.

So we now see two possible scenarios for the near future:

A continuation of the current "politicians' war," probably slowing down in a few days.

A full scale war between the Israeli and Palestinian people, triggered by some major act of outrage on one side or the other.

Of course, these two scenarios aren't mutually exclusive. We might have the first scenario for a few days, and then the second scenario. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the second scenario must occur sooner or later. (15-Jul-06) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 15-Jul-06 Israel and Hizbollah declare war

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 15-Jul-06
Israel and Hizbollah declare war