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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 21-Jul-06
Some random notes on the Mideast crisis

Web Log - July, 2006

Some random notes on the Mideast crisis

First off, dislodging Hizbollah from the Israeli border is almost impossible.

That's just one conclusion I've reached today, listening to the coverage of the Mideast crisis on CNN International, Fox news, and BBC. (Sorry, no MSNBC yesterday.)

Here's why:

Hizbollah is part of the Shiite population in southern Lebanon. There's no real distinction between "civilians" and "terrorists."

Hizbollah has been preparing for this war since 2000, ever since Israel voluntarily vacated Southern Lebanon. Hizbollah considered that to be a major victory for suicide bombing. They never saw it as any sort of "give and take" agreement with Israel; they saw it as a total victory over Israel, and a precursor to total destruction of Israel.

Hizbollah has spent tens of millions of dollars, provided by Syria and Iran, in building a terrorist infrastructure in Southern Lebanon. This infrastructure includes hardened bunkers where terrorists can hide with their 13,000 missiles.

Hizbollah's entire infrastructure is based on using civilians as human shields. Terrorists can launch rockets into Israel from locations that are surrounded by families with women and children, so an Israeli air force strike would therefore kill women and children.

Israel would like to destroy Hizbollah using only its air force, but every military pundit on tv said that it's impossible. So Israel will have to send ground troops into Lebanon -- for the first time since 2000.

But, to repeat, Hizbollah has been preparing for this since 2000, and they're prepared to inflict many casualties on Israeli ground troops. Even so, at the end, Hizbollah won't be dislodged.

Nonetheless, news reports indicate that Israel is preparing for a massive ground invasion, and it may already have started.

U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan called for an immediate ceasefire, which is the kind of moronic stuff you expect from Annan, since Hizbollah would ever honor any such commitment.

However, Annan also called for an international military force to enter Southern Lebanon to separate the Israelis from Hizbollah. But, to say it again, Hizbollah has been preparing for this war since 2000, and any international "peacekeeping" force would be even more vulnerable than Israeli ground forces, and would quickly be driven out.

Finally, there's a very big money factor. Hizbollah is a huge organization, with thousands of employees (from building contractors to doctors to terrorists) that have to be paid every week. This money comes from Iran and Syria. Even if Israel managed somehow to make a dent in Hizbollah, the organization would be quickly restored simply because that's where the money is.

All day Thursday, a big topic of discussion was this: What about the Lebanese people outside of Hizbollah? Are they pro-Hizbollah or pro-Israel?

The answer appears to be that the country is split on being pro-Hizbollah or anti-Hizbollah, but either way, the people are anti-Israel. The population is increasingly furious at Israel because of the civilian deaths and the destruction of the infrastructure.

Things have gotten so bad in Lebanon that the Lebanese defense minister has announced that the Lebanese army will fight with Hizbollah against Israeli forces, if Israel ground forces invade.

However, a Lebanese pundit in Beirut told CNN that there's another possibility: If the Lebanese army moves into southern Lebanon to join Hizbollah in the fight against Israel, Lebanese army may end up bringing Hizbollah under control. I can't tell whether that's a realistic hope or wishful thinking, but it's the one thing I heard all day that might bring an end to the fighting.

One interesting thing about the discussion of the Lebanon people is that the pundits were discussing all day whether to expect a renewal of the civil war in Lebanon, the civil war that ended in the 1980s.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, regular readers of this web site know that since only one generation has passed since the 1980s crisis civil war, a new civil war is impossible, for the same reason that a civil war in Iraq is impossible. I've written dozens of times on this web site why a civil war in Iraq is impossible, and I won't repeat the reasons here.

In a BBC report on Wednesday, the reporter in Beirut was asked by the London anchor whether he thought that there was a new civil war building. He said that every Lebanese he's spoken to has said that nothing of the sort is happening, which is exactly what Generational Dynamics would predict.

Incidentally, since I'm posting "random notes" on the Mideast crisis, let me post a random note on something else.

A major situation has been developing in Somalia as the country's government is being overthrown by radical Islamists, turning the country into yet one more stronghold for radical terrorists.

Yesterday, the neighboring country Ethiopia, has sent troops into Somalia to oppose the Islamists.

This is a very dangerous situation, but I simply haven't had time yet to put together an article on it. But readers of this web site should at least be aware of the situation, and keep any eye on it. (21-Jul-06) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 21-Jul-06 Some random notes on the Mideast crisis

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 21-Jul-06
Some random notes on the Mideast crisis