	Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

\| HOME \| WEB LOG \| COUNTRY WIKI \| COMMENT \| FORUM \| DOWNLOADS \| ABOUT \|

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 26-Jul-06
Lebanon war escalates as UN officials are killed and Nasrallah threatens deeper strikes in Israel

Web Log - July, 2006

Lebanon war escalates as UN officials are killed and Nasrallah threatens deeper strikes in Israel

Kofi Annan accused of Israel of "apparent deliberate targeting" of a lookout post in southern Lebanon where UN officials were stationed. Four UN observers were killed.

As I concluded in the the lengthy analysis of the Israel-Lebanon war that I posted yesterday, the best scenario that can be hoped for is a stopgap return to an equilibrium, but an equilibrium that will continue to degrade into full-scale war. The events of the last 24 hours are exactly on that path.

United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan accused Israel of "apparently deliberate targeting" the post. "This coordinated artillery and aerial attack on a long established and clearly marked U.N. post at Khiam occurred despite personal assurances given to me by Prime Minister Ehud Olmert," Annan said. But Israeli officials called Annan's accusations outrageous and demanded an apology. They promised a thorough investigation.

Israel

Israel

Almost simultaneously with these events, Hizbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah defiantly promised deeper missile attacks of Israeli civilians. It appears that Nasrallah is threatening to target the densely populated city of Jerusalem.

Beyond the atrocity of the killing of UN observers, even the accidental deaths of the UN observers is a public relations disaster for Israel, but good ol' Nasrallah's speech, confidently promising to target and kill even more Israeli civilians, continues to make Israel into a public relations victim. This makes it impossible for the world community to pressure Israel to accept a ceasefire, and so risks further escalation.

If Hizbollah does indeed land a missile, killing civilians in Tel Aviv, the level of fury among the Israeli people is liable to rise even further, raising the stakes in the confrontation between Hizbollah and Israel.

The level of fury is also rising among Arabs, according to Saudi King Abdullah. "If the option of peace fails as a result of Israeli arrogance, then the only option remaining will be war, and God alone knows what the region would witness in a conflict that would spare no one," said Saudi King Abdullah. "It must be said that patience can't last forever, and if the brutal Israeli military continues to kill and destroy, no one can foresee what may happen."

A worried international community is scrambling to find a solution, by means of an international conference to be held in Rome starting today. The plan is to put together an international force that will guard the border and separate Hizbollah from the Israelis. They'll be desperately trying to restore the "Nash equilibrium" that so far has prevented a world war.

As I wrote yesterday, there isn't a snowflake's chance in hell that Iran and Hizbollah will allow this for long, or at all. Iran has already invested in hundreds of millions of dollars in Hizbollah, whose sole purpose is to play a role in "wiping Israel off the map."

Meanwhile, let's not forget that the confrontation with the Palestinians continues as before. On Wednesday, 50 tanks moved into northern Gaza while the air force carried out three air strikes, killing or wounding several Hamas operatives.

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, once identified by the world as the great hope to implement the "Roadmap to Peace" with side-by-side Palestinian and Jewish states, is now almost completely irrelevant to the events unfolding in the Mideast.

Conflict risk level for next 6-12 months as of: 9-Feb-2006

W. Europe 1 Arab Israeli 3

Russia Caucasus 2 Kashmir 2

China 2 North Korea 2

Financial 3 Bird flu 3

Key: 1=green 1=Low risk 2=yellow 2=Med 3=red 3=High 4=black 4=Active

In the year 2000, Israel pulled all its forces out of southern Lebanon. Hizbollah used the six years since then to prepare for war with Israel. In 2005, Israel pulled all its forces out of Gaza, and Hamas used the last year to prepare for war with Israel.

Listening to tv pundits the last few days, I've been hearing something new: People are beginning to openly question whether Israel should continue to exist, whether a Jewish state could possibly ever exist peacefully in the midst of so many Muslim states.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the Mideast is headed for all-out war between Palestinians and Israelis. Generational Dynamics tells us that the war is coming, but doesn't tell us when. However, as events develop on a day to day basis, it looks like the time isn't too far off any more.

As to the question of whether a Jewish state could possibly ever exist peacefully in the midst of so many Muslim states, Generational Dynamics tells us that the region will be at war at regular intervals whether there's a Jewish state or not. (26-Jul-06) Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

Web Log Pages

Current Web Log

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 26-Jul-06 Lebanon war escalates as UN officials are killed and Nasrallah threatens deeper strikes in Israel

Web Log Pages

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 26-Jul-06
Lebanon war escalates as UN officials are killed and Nasrallah threatens deeper strikes in Israel