	Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 5-Aug-06
Will there REALLY be French troops separating Israeli and Hizbollah forces?

Web Log - August, 2006

Will there REALLY be French troops separating Israeli and Hizbollah forces?

Stranger things have happened, but I'll believe this only when I see it.

Israel's continued destruction of Lebanon's buildings, bridges and highways, and the mounting civilian deaths, have horrified people around the world.

Tens of thousands of Shiites have pro-Hizbollah riots in Bagdad, Iraq <font size=-2>(Source: CNN)</font>

Tens of thousands of Shiites have pro-Hizbollah riots in Bagdad, Iraq (Source: CNN)

Jordan's King Abdullah says that the Arab world has been so polarized that even if Hizbollah is destroyed, another similar group would pop up immediately.

On the other side, a daily rainstorm of hundreds of Hizbollah missiles have terrified millions of anxious Israelis, and displaced then from their homes or forced them to live in bomb proof shelters for three weeks so far.

Increasingly furious Israelis have believe that their country is fighting or its existence, as Hizbollah's main arms supplier, Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, attending a summit of Muslim nations in Malaysia, said, "The real cure for the conflict is the elimination of the Zionist regime."

Both sides are escalating. Hizbollah's missiles have increased in power and volume, and Israel's air strikes have destroyed more of Lebanon's infrastructure.

So what's the solution?

Actually, everyone agrees on the solution: Move thousands of international troops into a buffer zone separating Hizbollah and Israeli troops, and have those troops enforce a peace between the two sides.

And everyone agrees that this has to be a tougher force than the U.N. force that's been in place since 1978 -- those people are just "peacekeepers," but they're just sitting around now dodging missiles, since there's no peace to be kept. This time the international forces have to be more than peacekeepers: they have to be peacemakers.

Fortunately, everyone seems to agree that American troops shouldn't be part of the international force. Normally, the unctuous U.N. diplomats like to demand that America solve every world problem, so that they (the diplomats) can sit back and criticize everything America does.

But this time everyone agrees that isn't an option. America is already fully committed in Iraq, and American troops would be considered to be too "pro-Israel" to be suitable.

So what's really hilarious is that it's France, the country with the most unctuous diplomats of all, that's being cornered into leading the international troops, mainly because of the close relationship that the French have had with Lebanon in the past.

And the American diplomats -- U.N. representative John Bolton and Secretary of State Condi Rice -- have been really sticking it to the French by saying repeatedly that they expect to have a complete agreement within "days, not weeks."

Needless to say, the French are sweating, and are doing their best to squirm out of this. The argument is that you have to have a ceasefire before you can send the international troops in, which is the usual way of doing such things.

But the Israelis won't agree to this, because they claim that Hizbollah will use the ceasefire as an opportunity to be re-armed by Hizbollah.

Israelis have agreed to this type of compromise before, but they're less likely to do so now because they're in a generational crisis period, which means that they're much less willing to compromise and contain problems than they were before. This is supported by the fact that polls show that over 80% of Israelis fully support the IDF (Israeli Defense Forces) actions, and don't want any ceasefire.

In fact, from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, we're seeing a two enemies fighting two different wars with each other:

Lebanon is in a generational awakening era, so Hizbollah is fighting a non-crisis war. Hizbollah has planned for this war for six years, and is fighting it very methodically but without a lot of energy. Hizbollah's Hassan Nasrallah is willing to agree to a ceasefire because he can methodically work it into Hizbollah's strategy.

Israel is in a generational crisis era, so Israel is fighting a crisis war. Israel also planned for this war, but is fighting it very energetically and passionately, sending thousands of its soldiers into Lebanon to face Hizbollah. A ceasefire would be very frustrating for Israel, since it would break their energy.

The Israelis are claiming that they're systematically destroying Hizbollah, and pundits with knowledge of the Israeli strategy are saying that they'll be able to destroy enough of Hizbollah so they can agree to a ceasefire within a couple of weeks.

On the other hand, Hizbollah's Hassan Nasrallah is claiming that Israel has not affected Hizbollah's capability at all. To prove it, the number of missiles per day landing in northern Israel has doubled in the last couple of days.

So for the purpose of doing Generational Dynamics research, watching the Lebanon war is very instructive. We should know within a few weeks which was more successful: The passionate crisis war strategy, or the methodical non-crisis war strategy.

No matter how it turns out, I'll believe French troops will head to Lebanon when I see it. (5-Aug-06) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 5-Aug-06 Will there REALLY be French troops separating Israeli and Hizbollah forces?

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 5-Aug-06
Will there REALLY be French troops separating Israeli and Hizbollah forces?