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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 13-Aug-06
UN Security Council declares Lebanon peace while war expands

Web Log - August, 2006

UN Security Council declares Lebanon peace while war expands

Israel, Lebanon and Hizbollah have promised to end the war on Monday.

It's a strange world when everyone celebrates a ceasefire, and the war gets worse than ever.

But that's what's been happening since Friday evening, when the United Nations Security council resolution was adopted unanimously.

Immediately afterwards, Israel substantially expanded its military assault, tripling its ground forces in Lebanon to as many as 30,000, and increased the rate of air strikes.

During the day Saturday, Israel, Lebanon and Hizbollah all reluctantly agreed to abide by the ceasefire, which is to take effect on Monday morning at 1 am, New York time.

Israel's intention in expanding its military assault was to get as much accomplished by Sunday evening as possible, before the ceasefire took effect, and to control as much territory in southern Lebanon as possible.

Here are the key points of the U.N. Security Council resolution:

Hizbollah must immediately stop raining missiles on Israel.

Israel must immediately end offensive military operations in Lebanon. This means that Israel reserves the right to continue "defensive" military operations if Hizbollah fires more missiles on Israel. Lebanon and the Arab League had wanted the resolution to require Israel to immediately withdraw all forces from southern Lebanon, but Israel refused, and also increased the tempo of air strikes on Lebanon infrastructure to make the point that the air strikes will continue if the Arabs continue to insist on this position.

The United Nations will provide 15,000 peacekeepers to enforce the ceasefire. This is the creation of the "buffer zone" that I wrote about a few days ago. At that time, the plan was that the U.N. forces would be led by the French, though I expressed the view that the French would do all they could do avoid that. At any rate, the makeup of the U.N. peacekeeper force has now been left open, and the resolution requires that a decision be made within 30 days. Incidentally, Hizbollah was opposed to this clause, but received pressure from all sides to give in.

In addition, the Lebanese army will deploy 15,000 troops to southern Lebanon, for a total of 30,000 troops in the buffer zone. Israel believes that the Lebanese army really supports Hizbollah, and doesn't trust it.

Israel will withdraw troops as the U.N. international force is deployed. Lebanon, Hizbollah and the Arab League are furious about waiting so long, but it's the only condition under which Israel would agree to a ceasefire.

As I indicated before, in my analysis of the Lebanese war, from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the two belligerents have been using sharply contrasting styles in the war.

Israel has been fighting in a "hot" crisis war style, furiously bombing infrastructure, calling up new reserves every day, confronting Hizbollah terrorists on their own soil, and now feeling very anxious about the U.N. peace deal.

Iran/Hizbollah terrorists have been fighting in a "cool" non-crisis war style, planning for six years, launching missiles from the comfort of home, manipulating and drawing in Israel, forcing them to kill civilians, and now methodically using the U.N. deal as a pawn to advance its longer-term strategy.

Either style might win, as I discussed in contrasting this war to the burgeoning civil war in Sri Lanka.

Many commentators have been claiming that Hizbollah has been winning the war, simply by surviving Israel's assault. In fact, a recent poll conducted in Israel indicates that Israelis still strongly support the war, but are questioning the conduct of the war. On the other hand, Israel itself has claimed that it's struck massive blows to Hizbollah.

It will be VERY interesting to see how all of this rolls out in the next week. There's only one thing we can be absolutely certain of: This ceasefire won't last. (13-Aug-06) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 13-Aug-06 UN Security Council declares Lebanon peace while war expands

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 13-Aug-06
UN Security Council declares Lebanon peace while war expands