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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 17-Aug-06
Jackie Chan selected by UNICEF to warn the world of bird flu

Web Log - August, 2006

Jackie Chan selected by UNICEF to warn the world of bird flu

The movie star and martial arts expert will star in a public service announcement (PSA), according to the UNICEF press announcement.

Jackie Chan in bird flu PSA <font size=-2>(Source: UNICEF)</font>

Jackie Chan in bird flu PSA (Source: UNICEF)

In the one minute ad, Chan and six children use colorful origami birds to convey the message to stay away from sick and dead birds, especially chickens. It ends with, "But playing with paper birds is fine."

Highly pathenogenic H5N1 bird flu has continued to spread throughout Asia in both birds and humans. Bird flu appears to be endemic throughout Indonesia, where people are taking few precautions to prevent spreading. And among humans, there have been 57 H5N1 bird flu infections, of which 44 have been fatal. Last year, Indonesians were nearing panic as bird flu spread, but today, they seem to have accepted it as a permanent part of their lives.

Yesterday, China reported a fresh outbreak of bird flu, leading to the slaughter of over 200,000 fowl. The outbreak was the first in China since July 14 and the 38th reported among poultry nationwide since October last year.

As expected, the spread of bird flu has slowed since the end of Spring.

Last year at this time, bird flu was mostly confined to eastern Asia. But last winter, bird flu was spreading at lightning speed around globe. It moved west through China and into Russia, then into the Mideast and Europe, and finally into Africa.

Major flyways, bird flu status <font size=-2>(Source: UN FAO)</font>

Major flyways, bird flu status (Source: UN FAO)

The disease has spread rapidly among birds around the world. Ever since Spring 2005, when H5N1 was found to have infected birds at Lake Qinghaihu, the mid-China international meeting point and breeding ground for migratory birds, bird flu was poised to spread around the world. The Fall 2005 migration already spread it to west Asia, the Mideast, Europe and Africa within a few short months.

Miraculously, North America has escaped so far. It was expected to reach North America before summer, spread by migrating birds traveling from Africa along the Atlantic flyways. However, as far as is known, this hasn't happened.

(The reason for the uncertainty in the last sentence is because an infected bird may have reached North America, but died before spreading it, or only spread it to a small group of birds that haven't been discovered.)

Making the public service announcement with Jackie Chan is happening at exactly the right time, since the Fall migration will be starting up at the end of August. In the weeks and months that follow, hundreds of millions, perhaps billions of birds will migrate along the various flyways. It's more likely than not that bird flu will reach North America during the coming Fall and Winter season.

In the human bird flu cases in Indonesia, it appears all but certain that human to human transmission has been occurring, although such transmission is still very inefficient, requiring physical contact. This human to human transmission has been made possible by mutations in the H5N1 virus itself.

Conflict risk level for next 6-12 months as of: 9-Feb-2006

W. Europe 1 Arab Israeli 3

Russia Caucasus 2 Kashmir 2

China 2 North Korea 2

Financial 3 Bird flu 3

Key: 1=green 1=Low risk 2=yellow 2=Med 3=red 3=High 4=black 4=Active

The big concern is that further mutations in the virus will permit efficient human to human transmission, such as happens with "ordinary" human flu. In this case, there would a worldwide bird flu pandemic, resulting in tens or hundreds of millions of deaths, and a worldwide financial crisis.

I've been including "bird flu" as one of the items on my little conflict risk graphic because, although it's not a war by itself, it would undoubtedly quickly bring on a world war.

Meanwhile, iconoclastic flu researcher Dr. Henry Niman has used his Recombinomics web site to document cases of human to human transmission and mutations in the virus. Those who wish to follow the progress of the spread of bird flu should check out that web site.

Mainstream researchers disagree on when a worldwide bird flu epidemic is coming, but all agree that it's overdue, and could come at any time -- next week, next month, next year or thereafter. The time can't be predicted, but once it begins, it will spread around the world fairly quickly.

As I've said before, you and your family should prepare immediately for a possible pandemic. If human to human transmission became public next week on Monday, then by Tuesday all the shelves in grocery stores would be bare. If you stock up on food now, then you'll be sure to have what you need. Even if you think that you can beat the crowds to the grocery store, you should still stock up in advance. If you get your canned food after the panic begins, then you're depriving somebody else of food. But if you stock up in advance, then the shelves will be restocked, and you won't deprive someone else of food.

I once again strongly urge my readers to prepare for an H5N1 pandemic or for any kind of emergency (think of hurricane Katrina) by stocking up on food and water and currency and batteries for the entire household to live on for 2-3 months. This may cost a thousand dollars per person, but it's not wasted money since you can always eat the food later if no emergency occurs. Get canned or dried food that can last a long time in storage, and get a large container for storing water. Keep in mind that stored water becomes impure with time, so you'll also need some purifying tablets or bleach to kill bacteria in the water when the time comes. Finally, get whatever medicines you'll need to take care of yourself and your family for a long period of time. (17-Aug-06) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 17-Aug-06 Jackie Chan selected by UNICEF to warn the world of bird flu

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 17-Aug-06
Jackie Chan selected by UNICEF to warn the world of bird flu