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	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 18-Aug-06
Furious Chinese ambassador harshly threatens U.S. over Taiwan

Web Log - August, 2006

Furious Chinese ambassador harshly threatens U.S. over Taiwan

BBC anchor Carrie Gracie must have really pissed off Sha Zukang, China's ambassador to the United Nations in Geneva, because he was shouting angrily, when he answered Gracie's questions during an interview, a portion of which was broadcast on Thursday. (The full interview can be heard online starting on Saturday.)

"The moment that Taiwan declares independence, supported by whomever, China will have no choice but to [use] whatever means available to my government," he said. "Nobody should have any illusions on that."

Interviewer Gracie said that there would be "a high price to pay" to have a war over a small island.

"You are right, you are right," he shouted. "I said 'any cost.' It's not a matter of how big Taiwan is, but for China, one INCH of the territory is more valuable than the LIVES of our people."

This warning is consistent with the warning that Chinese President Hu Jintao gave to President Bush last year.

It's also consistent with last year's warning given by top-level Chinese army officer General Zhu Chenghu if America interfered with Taiwan: "If the Americans are determined to interfere [then] we will be determined to respond. We . . . will prepare ourselves for the destruction of all of the cities east of Xian [a city in central China]. Of course the Americans will have to be prepared that hundreds . . . of cities will be destroyed by the Chinese."

I mention all this because I've had several conversations with people recently who thought that China would never risk a war with America, and even said that talking about it is hyperbole. One person said that Taiwan and China would never want to have a war, because it would be bad for business. Of course if that were true, then nobody would ever have any wars. In this case there's absolutely no doubt: If Taiwan moved toward independence, then China would make a military move on Taiwan, and America would come to Taiwan's defense, and there would be full-scale war.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, a major crisis war with China cannot be avoided, and probably sooner rather than later. Taiwan is only one of the reasons. Another reason is the growing tension between China and Japan, which is going to lead to a war that will draw America in. A third reason is North Korea, which is determined to reunite with South Korea under North Korean control; America would defend South Korea, and China would defend North Korea, once again leading to full-scale war.

Returning to the interview with Chinese Ambassador Sha, he was furious about something else too: the West's constant criticism of China for its rapid militarization, with double-digit budget increases for the last few years. This is extremely ominous, since there's no doubt that they're preparing for war with America, with huge investments in submarines and missiles.

Ambassador Sha was quite blunt: "It's better for the U.S. to shut up, keep quiet. That's much, much better."

He added, "China's population is 6 times or 5 times the United States. Why blame China? No. forget it. It's high time to shut up. It's a nation's sovereign right to do what is good for them. But don't tell us what's good for China. Thank you very much."

And thank you too, Mr. Sha.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, a war with China will occur with absolute certainty, as part of the approaching "clash of civilizations" world war. We're already beginning to see the outlines of the two sides.

Conflict risk level for next 6-12 months as of: 9-Feb-2006

W. Europe 1 Arab Israeli 3

Russia Caucasus 2 Kashmir 2

China 2 North Korea 2

Financial 3 Bird flu 3

Key: 1=green 1=Low risk 2=yellow 2=Med 3=red 3=High 4=black 4=Active

China has close military ties with Iran, Pakistan and North Korea, and these countries are all sharing missile and nuclear technology. These countries and their allies will form the new "axis" in the war, to fight against America, India, Russia and the UK and their allies.

The fury that was exhibited by a Chinese ambassador is quite startling, because we have to assume that his anger is part of the "message" that he wants to impart to the West. The message is this: "We're becoming increasingly impatient with humiliating remarks by the West and by the West's interference with Taiwan. We're not going to tolerate it much longer." This message fits in very well with Iran's plans, clearly expressed by Iran's charismatic leader Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, to wipe Israel off the map. (18-Aug-06) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 18-Aug-06 Furious Chinese ambassador harshly threatens U.S. over Taiwan

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 18-Aug-06
Furious Chinese ambassador harshly threatens U.S. over Taiwan