	Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 28-Aug-06
Iran test fires submarine to surface missile in the massive "Blow of Zolfaqar" military games

Web Log - August, 2006

Iran test fires submarine to surface missile in the massive "Blow of Zolfaqar" military games

Iran (like China) continues rapid militarization, while confrontation over nuclear development looms.

The spectacular missile test capped the first week of five weeks of massive war games exercises, involving thousands of teams of forces, and dozens of land and sea weapons systems, staged in 16 provinces around the country.

The war games will continue until the end of September. The name "Blow of Zolfaqar" refers to a significant Shiite military victory in the seventh century.

Iran appears to be emulating its major new ally, China, in rapidly increasing its military expenditures.

According to an Iranian naval spokesman, the war games bring "a message of peace and friendship" to Iran's neighbors.

"We intend to convey this message to our neighboring states that we can restore security in the region together," said the spokesman, Admiral Habib Sayyari. Sayyari's statement didn't indicate whether restoring security would be done with or without wiping Israel off the map.

Some military pundits, speaking on various news programs on Sunday, indicated that it wasn't certain that Iran was telling the truth in saying that it had successfully tested a submarine-to-land missile, but added that if it was successful, then it represented a significant increase in Iran's military capability.

In addition, Iran opened a brand-new plant for manufacturing nuclear fuel on Sunday. A spokesman said that Iran's nuclear program was peaceful. "We are not a threat to anyone – even the Zionist regime [Israel], which is a definite enemy for the people of the region," he said. With all this love and peace pouring out of Iran, no wonder the world is becoming such a wonderful place.

According to Israeli intelligence sources, Iran is rapidly rearming Hizbollah in preparation for a new war. These sources say that Kofi Annan and the United Nations are facilitating the rearming of Hizbollah. Originally, Israelis had hoped that the U.N.'s international forces would fill a buffer zone separating Hizbollah from Israel, and prevent Hizbollah from rearming; instead, according to the report, the U.N. forces will provide a "shield" for Hizbollah, allowing them to rearm without interference from Israel.

Israelis are becoming increasingly nervous, and convinced that the world will force Israel to "Go it alone" in a war with Iran.

They're convinced, no doubt correctly, that the U.N., Europe and America will do nothing to stop Iran's nuclear weapons development and other military development, and will also do nothing to stop Hizbollah from rearming.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this national state of anxiety by the Israelis is typical of population entering a "generational crisis" era. Such a population becomes increasing anxious and panicky, and that's what leads to a new crisis war. It's very hard to get past the feeling that such a crisis war is getting very close now.

It's been getting increasingly clear, especially in the last year, that China is actively preparing for war with America, and will be allied with North Korea, Iran and Pakistan against America, India, Israel and the UK.

Since I wrote an article on this subject ten days ago, almost a dozen web site readers have asked me this question: How can I be so sure that Russia will be our ally. Why won't Russia and China be allied against us?

The first answer to this question is to ask, "Why would you even think that?" The Russians and Chinese have historically hated each other, and have had many wars in the last two millennia.

Most people who believe that Russia and China will be allied do so because they were allies in the 1950s, after both countries had adopted "Communism." In fact, the two forms of government had little in common except the name "Communism," and in the end the two forms of government were simply totalitarian dictatorships, enforced by the imprisonment, starvation, and slaughter of millions of citizens.

In fact, Russia and China didn't really like each other, despite their alliance in the 1950s, and by the 1960s many people believed that they were close to war.

Conflict risk level for next 6-12 months as of: 9-Feb-2006

W. Europe 1 Arab Israeli 3

Russia Caucasus 2 Kashmir 2

China 2 North Korea 2

Financial 3 Bird flu 3

Key: 1=green 1=Low risk 2=yellow 2=Med 3=red 3=High 4=black 4=Active

In addition, China and India are headed for war with each other, Pakistan and India are headed for war with each other (over Kashmir), Iran is supporting Muslim terrorists in the Caucasus (Chechnya and Dagestan), and Russia has a close relationship with India. So there's no possibility that Russia will be allied with China in the next world war. Furthermore, India used to be part of the British Empire and is still close to the UK, so India and Russia will be our allies.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, a "clash of civilizations" world war is approaching, and appears to be approaching rapidly. All that's needed is a trigger, and that's a chaotic event that could happen at any time. (28-Aug-06) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 28-Aug-06 Iran test fires submarine to surface missile in the massive "Blow of Zolfaqar" military games

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 28-Aug-06
Iran test fires submarine to surface missile in the massive "Blow of Zolfaqar" military games