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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 8-Sep-06
Israel re-occupies Gaza and abandons West Bank "convergence"

Web Log - September, 2006

Israel re-occupies Gaza and abandons West Bank "convergence"

Lawlessness has gotten so bad in Gaza that even Hamas apologized

The Lebanon war has caused several changes of direction among the Palestinians, but one thing hasn't changed: The situation becomes more chaotic and dangerous every day, especially in Gaza:

"When you walk around in Gaza, you cannot help but avert your eyes from what you see: indescribable anarchy, policemen that nobody cares about, youth proudly carrying weapons, mourning tents set up in the middle of main streets, and from time to time you hear that so-and-so was murdered in the middle of the night, and the response comes quickly the next morning. Large families carry weapons in tribal wars against other families. Gaza has turned into a garbage dump, there is a stench, and sewage flows [in the streets]."

These are the words of Hamas / Palestinian Authority spokesman Ghazi Hamad, in a published article.

There is tremendous irony in this, in two different ways.

When Israel unilaterally withdrew from Gaza in summer of 2005, voluntarily ending its occupation, it was hoped around the world that the Palestinians and Israelis would now settle down into a pattern for peace, leading to side-by-side Palestinian and Jewish states. I wrote that Generational Dynamics predicts that this pattern for peace couldn't happen. Today, I doubt that there are any Pollyannas left who believe that the region is headed in any direction even remotely resembling peace.

When Hamas, labeled a terrorist organization by the U.S. and other Western governments, unexpectedly won an overwhelming victory in the legilative elections, it became Hamas' responsibility to govern the Palestinians. In the analytical article that I wrote at the time, I quoted someone as saying, "The Hamas victory in the Palestinian elections may be a blessing in disguise. Now that they are in power, Hamas will have to take responsibility for the future. They will have to become more moderate. Now they are part of the democratic game and they will have to play by the democratic rules." Now, eight months later, Hamas does appear to have moderated, but the Palestinians have been ungovernable, especially in Gaza.

And so, a huge number of hopes and dreams held by politicians around the world are pretty much down the drain. No one feels this sense of failure more strongly than the Palestinian leaders themselves, according to Ghazi Hamad, the Hamas leader that we quoted earlier.

"The question is: Why did we not keep Gaza's freedom? ... The government cannot do anything, the opposition [Fatah] looks on from the sidelines, engaged in internal bickering, and the president has no power... We are walking aimlessly in the streets. The reality in which we are living in Gaza can only be described as miserable and wretched, and as a failure in every sense of the word. We applauded the elections and the unique democratic experience, but in reality there has been a great step backwards. We spoke of national consensus, [but] it turned out to be like a leaf blowing in the wind..."

The reason that Gaza is out of control is easily explained with Generational Dynamics.

But even without that, it's not hard to understand, and although I've discussed it many times on this web site, I have not seen even a single article or politician that's even mentioned it. That's because almost nobody seems capable of understanding even the simplest, most obvious generational concept, no matter how elementary.

The reason that Gaza is out of control is because it's the the most densely populated place in the world and the median age in the Gaza strip is 15.8. Gaza is a population of children.

Look at Hamad's comment, posted above: "When you walk around in Gaza, you cannot help but avert your eyes from what you see: indescribable anarchy, policemen that nobody cares about, youth proudly carrying weapons ...."

Gaza is populated by children proudly carrying weapons, with little or no adult supervision.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the young adult generation during a generational crisis era is called the "Hero generation," because they're treated as heroes by the population after they lead the battle into the next crisis war. In other contexts, this generation is called, "the mob."

As Hamad points out, the mob don't care about the local policemen. But they also don't care about Hamad, or the Hamas government, or president Mahmoud Abbas, or Fatah, or any other dinosaurs who are discussing nuances of world geopolitics.

They do develop a set of behaviors and attitudes of their elders -- but "stripped of hypocrisy" (quoting Hannah Arendt). That means that the youth in the Gaza mob don't care about the niceties of getting along with Israelis. Their elders say, "We hate the Israelis, but we have to do business with them." The mob strips that of hypocrisy and says, "We hate the Israelis, and we're going to solve the problem."

How do they solve the problem? Generational Dynamics tells us that all that's needed is the right "Prophet." Just as the Nazi mob elected Hitler as Chancellor because he promised to solve the Jewish problem (without saying how he would solve it), the Gaza mob are looking for a Prophet who will promise to solve the Israel problem.

There are two possible candidates for Prophet on the scene right now, but they're flawed. The two are Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who has promised to "wipe Israel off the map," and Hizbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, who led the Lebanese war with the Israelis, and who has promised to destroy Israel.

These two men are highly admired by the Gaza mob because of their attitudes and actions towards Israel, but they're flawed because they're Shiite / Persian leaders, rather than Sunni / Arab leaders. The Arabs simply do not wish to trade Israel for Iran.

So who will this Prophet be? It's impossible to predict now, of course. But it might be someone who, at this very moment, is speaking to a crowd of youthful Palestinians, and urging them to take action against Israel.

Maybe it will be Abu Ahmed, Gaza leader of the Al-Aqsa Brigades terror group, who says, "We learned from Hizbullah's victory that Israel can be defeated if we know how to hit them and if we are well prepared," and who is training Gazans for war with Israel.

This is the kind of chaotic event that can't be predicted. Since we're talking about mostly teenagers, the Prophet will be chosen via the same sort of panicky mass hysteria that teenagers pick a new rock star (think of the Beatles) or fashion item. It's going to happen sooner or later, probably sooner, because the population is ready for it.

Thanks to the summer war between Israel and Lebanon, the international geopolitical scene has changed in many drastic ways.

Here are just a few:

Gaza has dropped from world view during a period when living conditions have gotten "beyond desperate."

The Israeli government has learned a lesson: It withdrew voluntarily from south Lebanon in 2000, and that permitted Hizbollah to conduct this summer's war; it withdrew voluntarily from Gaza in 2005, and that permitted the chaotic situation in Gaza to develop, as well as the increased freedom for terrorist groups to import powerful anti-tank missiles and other weapons into the region. Therefore, the lesson is that withdrawal was a bad idea.
The first consequence is that Israel is effectively reoccupying Gaza, with airstrikes and tanks targeting Hamas terrorists.
The second consequence is that Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's "convergence" or "consolidation" plan for the West Bank has been abandoned. Under this plan, Israel would voluntarily withdraw from many of the West Bank settlements, consolidating them with others close to Jerusalem. This is now considered way too dangerous. The abandonment could be considered remarkable because it was just five months ago that Olmert won the election specifically on the platform of convergence, a platform that I characterized as an Israeli "bunker mentality" of withdrawing, with the intention of having nothing to do with the Palestinians.
Obviously, this entire "bunker mentality" concept is now dead after the Lebanon war and the increasing belligerence of Iran. Instead, the Israelis are becoming increasingly anxious and panicky, and may be reaching some kind of "tipping point" where they take preemptive action against someone (Iran).
As an aside, Generational Dynamics would describe what's happening in a similar way to the Gazans. As the Israelis become increasing anxious and panicky, the population, especially the youth, will be looking for a "Prophet" to solve the problem. This could happen in many ways, the most likely being the dissolution of the Olmert government, and its replacement with a new Prime Minister who will promise to "solve the Palestinian / Iranian problem," without necessarily saying how.

The Mideast is becoming increasingly internationalized. This is a very significant development that almost no one is commenting on. For decades, it's been a policy of many countries -- the U.S., Europe, Egypt, and so forth -- to keep their troops out of the Mideast at any cost, for fear of being drawn into a war between the Israelis and the Palestinians.
But now the new U.N. south Lebanon buffer force is full of international forces, the United Nations is calling for an international presence in Gaza.
What happens if a French soldier has to fire on a Palestinian? What happens if a Malaysian soldier has to fire on an Israeli? It takes only a few incidents of this type before events start spiraling out of control. So this international force could easily be the nucleus of the major international war in the Mideast.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, I predicted in May, 2003, when the "Mideast Roadmap to Peace" came out, that the disappearance of Yasser Arafat and Ariel Sharon from the scene has removed the last major generational inhibitions to full-scale war, re-fighting the genocidal 1940s war between Jews and Arabs following the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel. In 2003 I could predict the final destination (full-scale war), but not the scenario that would lead to it.

Now we're seeing the scenario play itself out. Each day the situation gets worse, and each day there are more and more possibilities for triggers that could launch full-scale war. With the increasing anxiety and panic of the Israeli people, and the increasing belligerence of the children of Gaza, the war could be triggered next week, next month or next year, but it will probably happen sooner rather than later. (8-Sep-06) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 8-Sep-06 Israel re-occupies Gaza and abandons West Bank "convergence"

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 8-Sep-06
Israel re-occupies Gaza and abandons West Bank "convergence"