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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 12-Sep-06
Tony Blair commits the rest of his term to solving the Mideast problem

Web Log - September, 2006

Tony Blair commits the rest of his term to solving the Mideast problem

Meanwhile, the Palestinians announce a unity government -- with a condition.

Speaking at a press conference in Beirut with Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora, British Prime Minister Tony Blair said this:

"But I wanted to lay particular emphasis, as I think you did, on the fourth aspect of our discussion together, and that is on the Israel-Palestine conflict. I think it is important, as I have been saying these past two days, that we do everything that we can to re-energise that process, to give ourselves the best chance of achieving a lasting comprehensive settlement of that issue, with two states living side by side in peace together. I believe that it can be done, and furthermore I commit myself for the remainder of my time in office to do everything I can to bring that about. It is I believe of huge importance, of course primarily to Israelis and to Palestinians, but also as we can see to the whole of the region and indeed to the world."

Well, as regular readers of this web site know, I said in May, 2003, when the "Mideast Roadmap to Peace" came out, that Generational Dynamics predicts that the disappearance of Yasser Arafat and Ariel Sharon from the scene would remove the last major generational inhibitions to full-scale war, re-fighting the genocidal 1940s war between Jews and Arabs following the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel.

Now, Tony Blair is a sincere, optimistic man who believes that he has a moral duty, as Prime Minister, to devote himself to solving the conflict between the Jews and and Palestinians. I also attribute his statement to the fact that a minimum job requirement to be a politician is to possess the skill of total self-delusion.

Blair reached Lebanon on Monday after a tour through the Mideast that included similar press conferences with Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) and with Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, both of whom expressed skepticism about aspects of Blair's plan. Blair's worst reception was actually in Lebanon, where thousands of Lebanese protested Blair's visit to Lebanon, accusing him of backing Israel in the 34-day war with Israel.

The good news for Blair was Monday's announcement that the Palestinians have announced a national unity government, uniting the Abbas' Fatah group with the militant Islamic group Hamas under Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh of Hamas.

Fatah and Hamas are pretty much bitter political enemies, so this unity government would have little chance of succeeding under far more favorable circumstances, but both sides are desperate. The Palestinians have lost tens of millions of dollars of international aid, ever since Hamas, designated a terrorist group by the U.S. and Europe, won the Parliamentary elections in January. They're desperately hoping that a unity government will convince the international donors to start pouring money in again.

There's a big condition, and it's the same condition that's been around all along. Aid money was cut off until Hamas agreed to recognize the existence of Israel and to renounce terrorism. Hamas will recognize Israel and renounce terrorism when pigs fly, as I wrote in my analysis at the time.

Actually, some reports have indicated that Tony Blair proposed a solution to this problem. Under the compromise, Hamas as an organization wouldn't have to recognize Israel; only the particular Hamas politicians elected to Parliament or in the government would have to do so. But it's not clear that this compromise would be acceptable to Washington anyway.

But the easiest way to understand why any Mideast peace deal can't possibly succeed for long, as I've written frequently, is because Gaza is essentially a region of weapon-carrying children, with almost no adult supervision. To these children, both Fatah and Hamas are thundering herds of dinosaurs with no relevance to their lives. Whether there are two dinosaur herds or a single "unified" dinosaur herd makes absolutely no difference whatsoever to the kids in Gaza.

As I said, Tony Blair is a sincere man, and he sincerely wants to be the one to finally find the solution to the problem of the Palestinians versus Jews. Unfortunately, since he's a politician he's not capable of understanding the fact that some problems have no solution. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the Mideast is headed for a major regional war, refighting the genocidal wars of the 1940s, with near mathematical certainty. (12-Sep-06) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 12-Sep-06 Tony Blair commits the rest of his term to solving the Mideast problem

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 12-Sep-06
Tony Blair commits the rest of his term to solving the Mideast problem