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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 19-Sep-06
General John Abizaid says there'll be no troop cutbacks in Iraq

Web Log - September, 2006

General John Abizaid says there'll be no troop cutbacks in Iraq

This is hardly a surprise to me, though not for the reasons most people give.

General John Abizaid, the top American commander in Iraq, said that the 140,000 American troops now in Iraq will still be needed after this year. This is a change in policy, since American commanders had previously said they expected to reduce the troop commitment by the end of this year.

Abizaid also said that Iran is continuing to develop new weapons and make them available to terrorist groups in the region.

As regular readers know, Generational Dynamics predicts that we're headed for a "clash of civilizations" world war. And as I discussed in yesterday's articles on Awakening eras in America and in Muslim countries, Palestine and Israel will certainly be an epicenter of that war.

The level of conflict in the entire Mideast region has been growing steadily for several years, since the Intifada began in the West Bank in 2000. Palestinians have become increasingly radicalized, al-Qaeda is linking up with other terrorist groups, the Taliban is resurging in Afghanistan, and sectarian violence has been increasing in Iraq.

Mideast, showing Israel/Palestine, Muslim countries, and Orthodox Christian countries

Mideast, showing Israel/Palestine, Muslim countries, and Orthodox Christian countries

There's still no chance of a civil war in Iraq, but Iraq is still geographically located in the center of all this terrorist activity, so it's not surprising that the level of conflict has been growing in Iraq.

From a long-range point of view, it wouldn't make sense to close down Iraqi outposts and remove troops and equipment now, since approaching events would only require us to bring them back.

Despite the journalistic and political hysteria over the war in Iraq, it's far from clear that the war in Iraq is a bad for America at this time. Our presence there is giving us a great deal of valuable field experience in the use of high-tech weaponry, and that will give us a unique advantage in the coming world war. Furthermore, we know for certain that, without Saddam, Iraq won't be developing any more chemical or biological weapons for use against Israelis and Americans.

The "clash of civilizations" world war has already begun, in the sense that historians will certainly look back at the Afghan, Iraq and Lebanese war as early skimishes in the world war. Whether our experience in Iraq will turn out to have been valuable to us will not be known for at least another ten years.

In the meantime, my expectation is that American troops will be in Iraq and the Mideast until the end of the world war. (19-Sep-06) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 19-Sep-06 General John Abizaid says there'll be no troop cutbacks in Iraq

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 19-Sep-06
General John Abizaid says there'll be no troop cutbacks in Iraq