	Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 27-Sep-06
Level of loathing between Israelis and Palestinians increases

Web Log - September, 2006

Level of loathing between Israelis and Palestinians increases

According to an online correspondent with contacts in the Israeli government, Israeli's strategy will "probably take the form of the ethnic cleansing of the entire West Bank, an idea that already has a vocal constituency and which, I have been told, the Israeli government has discussed from time to time."

This is the kind of change of attitude that I would be expecting, and that's the reason I'm quoting the correspondent, even though I don't have a mainstream media source to confirm it.

There's always been a vocal minority of Palestinians talking about exterminating Israelis, and this kind of speech has become much more vocal thanks to Iranian Presidentis Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's stated objectives, supported by Hizbollah leader Hasran Nasrallah, to "wipe Israel off the map."

Hearing the same kind of thing from the Israeli side is a new development. However, it's exactly what would be expected during a generational crisis era as the two sides approach a major genocidal war. In order for two groups to reach the point where they would try to exterminate each other, the level of loathing and the desire for vengeance have to become exceedingly intense, and we see that happening.

When Ehud Olmert won the election for Israeli Prime Minister earlier this year, it was on a platform of "convergence" (the Hebrew word also means "consolidation"). This meant that Israel would close most of its West Bank settlements, drawing them back into groups within Israel, and that Israel Israel, and will complete the security fence/barrier, thus unilaterally defining Israel's borders.

Olmert's plan is now demolished. The Lebanon war made it clear to everyone that the security fence provides no real protection. The Israeli population is increasingly anxious and frightened. It's not surprising that more and more Israelis are looking for another solution.

On the Palestinian side, things are also very bad. It's now been about ten months since international aid was cut off to the Palestinians, following the electorial victor of Hamas, named a terrorist group by the U.S. and Europe. Living conditions in Gaza continue to deteriorate rapidly; unemployment is up to 75%, and Israel has blocked all travel in and out for security reasons. It's not surprising that more and more Palestinians, and Arabs in general, are looking for a solution.

Israel's unilateral withdrawal from Gaza last year has clearly been a disaster for both sides. Remember what was supposed to happen -- a flowering of commerce and freedom in Gaza, leading to a Palestinian state next to Israel. Instead, Gaza has deteriorated into chaos, and Hamas' use of missiles threatens Israel continually, with or without the security fence.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the open expressions of loathing and desire for vengeance is growing on both sides because of generational changes. Until recently, much of the population on both sides consisted of the generations of people that survived the extremely genocidal 1948 war between Arabs and Jews that began when Palestine was partitioned and Israel was created. Yasser Arafat and Ariel Sharon were in that generation. But today those people are almost all gone, and the young people left behind have no fear of genocidal war, and will lead the way.

Let by young people, Israeli and Palestinian voters have elected a candidate who promised to solve the problem, but failed to do so.

There's a very interesting parallel on both sides:

The Israelis voted for Ehud Olmert, expecting him to solve the "Palestinian problem" through his "convergence" proposal. That proposal failed, and the "Palestinian problem" is unsolved.

The Palestinians voted for Hamas, expecting them to solve the "Israel problem." But with an ungovernable Gaza now in total chaos, Hamas can't even govern, and so the "Israel problem" is unsolved.

Anxious, furious people on both sides are looking for someone who can solve the problem -- and they don't care how. And a sizable minority hold their current leaders, Olmert for the Israelis and Hamas and Mahmoud Abbas for the Palestinians, in extreme contempt. This parallels how a sizable minority in the U.S. hold President Bush in extreme contempt.

The voters in Nazi Germany held their existing leaders in extreme contempt, and chose Hitler, someone who promised to solve the "Jewish problem," without saying how. By voting in that way, the voters avoid personal responsibility; they can say, "I'm voting to solve a problem, not to kill someone."

It's impossible to predict the exact scenario that will lead to war, but it's possible that the Israelis or the Palestinians or both will follow a similar example: Elect or otherwise choose someone who'll promise to fix the "Palestinian / Israel problem," without necessarily saying how he plans to do it.

I've been asking people this question lately: What do you think is the probability that Israel will still exist ten years from now? I haven't heard anyone yet give me a convincing argument that the probability is much above zero. (27-Sep-06) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 27-Sep-06 Level of loathing between Israelis and Palestinians increases

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 27-Sep-06
Level of loathing between Israelis and Palestinians increases